YB new stock pitches (Fri, Aug 15)

Casey's General Stores (CASY), the third-largest US convenience store chain with approximately 2,900 locations, is also the fifth-largest pizza chain in the country. The company's success stems from its food strategy, which generates higher profit margins per visit, enabling fuel and pizza discounts that attract loyal customers with high Net Promoter Scores. Casey's differentiates itself through 40% higher staffing levels than typical gas stations, offering career paths in rural America and ensuring consistent food quality. The company recently expanded into the South with the Fike's acquisition (200 stores at 11x EBITDA, reduced to 7x post-pizza rollout), and management believes Texas alone could provide 2,000 more units. This unit growth story may accelerate through accretive M&A at EBITDA multiples half of Casey's own trading levels. Despite a 30% stock price increase this year, the investment thesis centers on a world-class management team with a differentiated business model poised for a decade of profitable growth ahead.

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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is developing a space-based cellular broadband network using satellites that communicate directly with unmodified smartphones, enabling coverage anywhere including remote areas and oceans. The company currently has 5 satellites in orbit for proof of concept, with plans to launch 60 satellites by Q1 2026 and ultimately 248 satellites. AST projects becoming cash flow positive by end of 2025 with 25 satellites in orbit, and currently has $1.5 billion in cash. Strategic partnerships include AT&T, Verizon, Google, Samsung, Vodafone, and Rakuten, collectively reaching over 3 billion people. While Starlink and Apple offer limited competing services, AST's larger satellites provide higher capacity and broadband capability. Additional revenue opportunities include defense applications (potentially benefiting from Trump's $25 billion 'Golden Dome' missile shield initiative) and first responder services in areas with limited coverage. The investment thesis is supported by high insider ownership (CEO owns over 30%), recurring revenue potential, operating leverage from low variable costs, and asymmetric upside potential despite regulatory and execution risks.

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Mural Oncology (MURA), a $30 million market cap biotech company, currently holds $77.1 million in cash and projects $43-48 million ($2.50/share) by December 31, 2025, representing significantly higher-than-expected cash burn as they wind down R&D efforts. The company's recent business update contained notable language changes, including new cash estimate guidance and a mention that 'actual cash balances may differ materially' if a transaction occurs before year-end, potentially hinting at a deal in progress. MURA also newly introduced the possibility of 'wind-down and liquidation' among its strategic alternatives. Key risks include tax implications related to its spin-off status (safe harbor would be reached in November) and questions about maintaining 'active trade or business' classification after cutting over 90% of employees. With these considerations, the price target is $2.26 (44% upside), with potential for a buyout at approximately 90% of projected year-end cash, possibly structured as an acquisition to satisfy Irish takeover rules and provide management change of control bonuses. - link

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