YB new stock pitches (Fri, Aug 28)

Hunting was increased at 381p, versus NAV of 445p and a weighted valuation around 570p, with a possible upside case of 3x, because the business mix is shifting toward higher-margin, differentiated products despite a disappointing H1. Revenue fell 6%, EBITDA declined from $70M to $62M and FY2026 EBITDA guidance was reduced from $145M-$155M to $138M-$141M after the KOC re-tender delayed roughly $10M of expected earnings. Subsea achieved a 21.7% margin and generated 40% of segment profit; $63.5M of Exxon Guyana orders scheduled for 2027 add future higher-margin visibility. Perforating Systems gained further U.S. market share while recording strong sales in Australia, Argentina, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. The order book recovered 8% from year-end to $386.5M, with the OCTG order book up 67% in H1 even before any KOC award. The next tests are demanding: $75.9M-$78.9M of H2 EBITDA, a recovery from negative $19M cash to $50M-$60M by year-end, a working-capital unwind and a profitable KOC win.

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Seers is a vertically integrated Korean digital-health company spanning wearable medical biosensors, AI-driven clinical-data analysis and remote patient monitoring. It shifted from a hardware-led model toward deep-learning software that reviews biometric streams, while retaining in-house chemical patch fabrication, which provides a structural cost advantage. Hospitals buy sensors, bedside monitors and gateways, then pay software fees and purchase proprietary single-use patches, hydrocolloids and conductive hydrogels. SYNC, its largest revenue source, charges per bed, consolidates real-time vitals and accepts third-party devices, allowing upgrades without wholesale hardware replacement. MobiCARE processes outpatient ECG streams for 14 arrhythmia types and heart-rate variability; it is used at about 1,000 Korean medical institutions and has logged over 700,000 cumulative arrhythmia diagnoses. Adoption across over 1,000 hospitals has driven surging sales, and sales and profits have risen sharply over three years. After the sharp share-price decline since March 2026, a 20x P/E on the ₩86.8 billion consensus net-profit estimate implies a ₩1.7 trillion market value and ₩44,000 per share, or 110% upside.

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Replenish Nutrients remains the largest position at 12%, with a roughly 16c cost basis; the holding was increased after a partner financing left the company well capitalized. Its regenerative fertilizer lasts up to a year and is converted into uniform granules compatible with conventional seed drills and commercial spreaders, avoiding growers' equipment-adoption barriers. Three capital-light partner plants — Beiseker Hutterite Colony, MJ Ag Solutions and Farmers Union Enterprise's Crookston facility — are expected online in Q3/Q4, while the owned Beiseker Granulation Plant is ramping and a major pelletization expansion is planned for Q1 2028. Once all announced plants are fully ramped and all possible dilution is included, estimated earnings are approximately 7.2c per share, implying about 4x ramped earnings versus a stated willingness to pay more than 15x. The key runway is Farmers Union Enterprise: its initial plant covers less than 1% of member acres, and each additional 100,000-metric-ton plant could contribute roughly 6.3M of gross profit against today's 59M market capitalization.

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