YB new stock pitches (Fri, Jun 5)

Sempra (SRE), a new core long and 9% portfolio weight for Voss Capital, is a utilities conglomerate trading at 17.8x NTM P/E—in-line with lower-growth regulated peers—that Voss believes can unlock significant value through simplification, with a price target of $141 (+53%, 17% IRR by YE2028). The consolidated structure, dominated by two California utilities contributing over half of earnings, masks Oncor (80.3%-owned Texas T&D), the fastest-growing and largest T&D utility in North America, which is insulated from California politics/wildfire liabilities and benefits from Permian Basin electrification, D/FW and central Texas population growth, and transmission upgrades; Oncor's ~$31.5B rate base is set to grow at a nation-leading 17% CAGR to $69B by 2030 (with $10B further upside) via a $47.5B 5-year capex plan, over 70% of which is already-approved, high-visibility transmission projects growing ~22% CAGR and not dependent on data center/electricity demand. The California utilities—SDG&E (electric to 3.6M, gas to 3.3M) and SoCalGas (largest U.S. LDC, gas to 21.3M)—carry substantially lower wildfire risk than peers EIX/PCG because SoCalGas is gas-only (no ignition risk) and SDG&E has over 60% of distribution undergrounded with no catastrophic wildfire in nearly two decades; favorable reform via SB254 (passed Sept 2025) extended the wildfire fund with a 50/50 utility/ratepayer split and liability caps at 20% of equity rate base, supporting a re-rating as fire risk fades, versus EIX/PCG which traded at 16x/14x NTM P/E in Dec 2024 before falling to high-single digits after January 2025 fires. The catalyst is a tax-free spin-off of Oncor into a pure-play 'SpinCo' (premier highest-growth public transmission utility expected to attract low-cost capital and the highest multiple in public utilities) with a high-dividend California 'RemainCo,' alongside the already-agreed sale of a 45% SIP stake to KKR/CPP for $10B (13.8x EBITDA, $22.2B equity/$31.7B EV) in three tranches ($4.7B Q3 2026, $4.1B Q4 2027, $1.2B 2033) to de-lever and self-fund Oncor's capex without equity issuance; Sempra retains ~25% of SIP, sellable as early as January 2029, enabling Sempra and Oncor to trade as pure-play utilities post a late-2028 restructuring. Valuation assumes Oncor at 30x forward P/E (slight premium for transmission dominance) yielding $78B equity ($62.5B Sempra stake, 1.9x EV/rate base, a discount to slower-growing comps) plus California utilities at 16x earnings ($26B), totaling $141/share; SRE trades ~$375M daily volume, so Voss's 9% stake is only half a day's volume.

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Tonies SE (TNIE.F), a Norbury Capital portfolio holding, operates a razor/razorblade business model selling screen-free audio-boxes and chip-embedded figurines for young children, with figurines holding licensed IPs like Disney, Paw Patrol, Cars, and Peppa Pig. The Toniebox is sold at no margin while money is made on figurines (€15-20 each) and additional in-app stories (€5-10), with a typical buyer acquiring ~€200 in additional figurines and content. With nearly 12 million Tonieboxes sold, an extensive licensed content library, large retail footprint, and over 50% penetration among German parents with young children, competition is increasingly unlikely (nearest competitor Yoto is much smaller with a differentiated card-based player less suited to younger kids). The company grew 36% organically last year, including 40% in its largest market, the US, and management targets continued ~30% growth, currently limited mainly by organizational capacity. Tonies is sold physically only in DACH, the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, and France, leaving a long geographic runway, plus content expansion with upcoming Pokémon figurines and Tonieplay (audio-based games for older children) launching this summer, with further expansion plans expected at its June capital markets day. EBITDA margin is reaching double digits for the first time (already above 25% in mature DACH), with margins expected to trend upward elsewhere as mix shifts toward figurines. The company expects above 20% revenue growth this year. At 13x EV/EBITDA on a conservative EBITDA estimate, the stock offers more than 30% earnings growth for the foreseeable future, with both near-term triggers and strong long-term prospects, though some investors dismiss it as a fad or hype.

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Stabilis Solutions ($SLNG, new long position) is an LNG logistics company that moves gas to places pipelines can't reach, and it sits at the brink of an earnings inflection the market is ignoring. The stock has had a rough 3-6 months: a bunker fuel contract (~30% of revenue) was cancelled, a large Aggreko contract (>20%) rolled off—leaving a major earnings hole in 1H26—and its proposed Galveston LNG facility, which was supposed to reach FID by March, lost a key offtaker and now appears in jeopardy with <50% offtake covered (this was the prior reason to own the stock). However, in February the company announced a massive data center contract worth $100m/year in revenue starting 1Q27 and running for 2 years (versus prior record revenue of only ~$70m), which was largely overlooked amid the Galveston turmoil. This taps into the behind-the-meter (BTM) power opportunity, as many data centers aren't connected to gas pipelines, particularly for short-term bridging; Stabilis participates in both commissioning (onsite gas to bring up data halls before the grid is available) and short-term bridging. On the 1Q call, SLNG announced another commissioning contract ramping in 3Q26 through year-end that management says will offset the Aggreko and bunker fuel losses, allowing them to exit 2026 at revenue levels similar to 2025—before the DC contract adds $100m in 1Q27. The author estimates up to $170m in revenue next year if commissioning work is sustained, with consistent ~26-27% gross margins and roughly flat SG&A yielding an estimated $30-35m in EBITDA. With a ~$74m market cap and no debt, that puts the stock at ~2-2.5x 2027e EBITDA and ~3x FCF (NOLs, no tax). Management cited 'lots of activity' around 6-12 month commissioning work and several larger bridge contracts in discussion, suggesting more announcements this year. The author compares it to $TH, a beaten-up name whose story is shifting (from bunker fuel/ICE contracts to data center work) while the market isn't paying attention. Risks include the speculative, short-term nature of the commissioning projects, but the author is long given an attractive risk/reward where the company could earn back its market cap in cash within a few years.

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