YB new stock pitches (Fri, May 16)

Amkor Technology (AMKR), an outsourced semiconductor assembly and test company, appears to be in a sale process with potential acquisition at $28-30/share (~50% upside). Multiple indicators support this thesis: amended bylaws with M&A-related terms including alternative forum consent and indemnification provisions; complete halt of insider selling since October 2024 after years of consistent sales; extensive Kim family estate planning via GRATs and trust transfers; addition of M&A-experienced board member John Liu; Kim family selling Eagles stake for $270 million; and a special dividend potentially related to preparing for a sale. The Kim family owns 50.2% of shares but has no succession plan with no family members employed at the company. The OSAT industry needs consolidation, with Amkor positioned as the only American OSAT, receiving $400 million in CHIPS Act grants for a $2 billion Arizona fab. Amkor trades at just 0.7x EV/S compared to ASE's 1.4x, representing its cheapest relative valuation ever. The company is projected to earn $1.50 EPS in 2025 and potentially $2.00 in 2026, with a standalone value of approximately $20/share, making a $30/share acquisition price (20% premium to recent trading range) reasonable.

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Hallador Energy ($HNRG) is transforming from a coal miner to an integrated power producer, with shares up 207% in nine months to $18.12. The company owns the 1,080MW Merom Generating Station with valuable MISO grid-interconnection rights, and is streamlining operations by cutting investments by $10 million and focusing on low-cost mines. Key catalysts include a potential deal with a data center developer worth $200-250 million annually for 15+ years, consistent insider buying by multiple directors in the $5-7 range, and increasing electricity demand that makes coal assets more valuable during the energy transition. Analysts project the stock could reach $50 as valuation shifts from the current 2.5x EBITDA to 8-10x EBITDA as investors recognize Hallador as a utility rather than a coal miner, with additional upside potential from a cryptocurrency mining venture and possible buyout interest.

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Maui Land & Pineapple Company (MLP) is a Steve Case-owned land bank controlling 22,000 acres valued at $13,000/acre, with management focused on accelerating monetization. Key assets include: 1) 'The Crown Jewel' - 83 oceanfront acres with entitlements for 769 residential units, 545 hotel units, and commercial space, potentially worth $500-600 million with minimal capex needed; 2) Kapalua Mauka - 927 acres across the highway offering oceanfront views, potentially worth $927+ million; and 3) approximately 11,000 agricultural acres potentially valued at $100,000/acre. Sum-of-the-parts valuation yields $110/share undiscounted or $47/share PV@10% (a 3x return), though management expects faster monetization. Unlike typical land banks, MLP's general and administrative expenses are covered by rental income streams, it carries zero debt, and its position in development-restrictive Hawaii provides limited downside at the current $300 million valuation ($25,000/acre excluding conservation land).

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