YB new stock pitches (Fri, May 2)

Alarm.com, the leading residential security platform with 10 million customers serviced through 10,000+ professionals, dominates the high-end market segment while expanding into commercial (10% of SaaS revenue growing at 30%) and international markets (6% of revenue). The company focuses exclusively on service professionals, providing the technological backbone while these partners handle installation and customer relationships. With 60% of its 2,000 employees dedicated to R&D, Alarm.com has established itself as the gold standard in home security, investing nearly 30% of revenue in product development to maintain its competitive edge through AI integration, IoT compatibility, and superior cybersecurity. The company maintains 94% homeowner retention, demonstrating strong customer satisfaction despite not having direct customer relationships. Key growth opportunities include commercial expansion (with 6x higher ARPU than residential), international markets, and integration with AI and IoT devices, while risks include the indirect customer relationship model and potential DIY competition. Trading at approximately 8x 2028 free cash flow with an 8% three-year revenue CAGR, Alarm.com offers 50% upside to a price target of $79.65.

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Sintana Energy's stock (SEI.V) has unfairly dropped 29% to CAD 0.51 despite significant positive developments, most notably multiple oil discoveries in the 3X drill at PEL 83, confirmed as a 'certainly oilier' region with better-than-expected reservoir quality. Galp has reaffirmed its 10 billion barrel in-place estimate during their Q1 earnings call, clarifying confusion around the incomplete 875 million contingent resource estimate that only considered data through November 2024. Currently, Galp is focused on developing concepts for both the Northwest and Southeast regions and seeking a major partner, with a decision expected later in 2025. Additional positives include nearby Rhino discoveries and Chevron considering drilling PEL 82 (where Sintana holds 4.9%) in 2026-27. The price decline can be attributed to the CEO selling 2.45% of his position, oil price weakness, Woodside leaving PEL 87 (delaying drilling), and no near-term drilling plans. With a market cap of only $138 million versus the massive potential resource, the risk/reward profile is stronger than ever, with asymmetric catalysts like farmout announcements for PEL 83 and PEL 87 likely within 12 months.

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American Tower Corporation (AMT), the leading global mobile tower operator with 150,000 sites, trades at 20x cash flow for high single-digit growth, representing a 3x multiple discount versus historical valuations and a 1.5x discount compared to broader REITs (which trade at 21.5x cash flow with mid-single digit growth). AMT's shares recently rebounded due to accelerating carrier bookings activity, management's solid outlook for 2025 financials, and the company's exit from India, which positions it to deliver more predictable and less volatile earnings growth focused on developed markets. After previously exiting the position in 2024 due to full valuation relative to growth prospects, the investment team reacquired shares in Q1 at more attractive valuation levels combined with higher earnings visibility, citing their favorable view of AMT's business model, secular growth in mobile data, and superior management team.

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