YB new stock pitches (Fri, May 8)

WOLF: US-only 200mm SiC fab at $2.5B EV vs $5-7B sunk capex + $7-11B replacement cost. AI DC SiC TAM doubled to $10-12B since Sept '25 bk emergence on hyperscaler capex +$220-270B & 800V timeline pull-in 2-3yrs. $20-40K SiC/MW today → $145-275K by 2028-30 architecture flip. 10kV MOSFET leader, 300mm wafer first (TSMC interposer option), vertically integrated. DPA Title III, Renesas 35% anchor. 7M true float vs 11M short (157%). Comp catch-up: NVTS/VICR re-rated 2-20x, WOLF still at fresh-start valuation.

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ASTA Energy Solutions AG (1AST.DE), a new largest position, is a German manufacturer of CTCs (copper conductors for high-voltage transformers) that holds an 80-90% market share in ultra-high voltage transformers, operating in an oligopolistic market with three players controlling approximately 90% of the CTC market. The company benefits from critical supply chain bottlenecks in high-voltage transformers, which are backlogged to 2030 and beyond, with major customers including Siemens, Hitachi, GE, HD Hyundai Electric, and Hyosung Heavy under long-term supply agreements. ASTA trades at approximately 14x 2026 estimated EBITDA compared to peers trading at 25-40x, with Siemens Energy at roughly 25x, GE Vernova near 40x, and the closest peer HD Hyundai Electric above 30x 2026 EBITDA. The company guided to mid-teens percentage revenue growth in 2026 with expanding margins translating to over 20% EBITDA growth, and capacity expansion beginning in 2027 is expected to accelerate growth further, with estimates suggesting the company could generate over €100 million in EBITDA by 2029. The stock, which IPO'd in January and remains thinly traded with sparse coverage, has already begun re-rating since recent earnings, and if it re-rates closer to peers at 20x EBITDA while growing to €100 million in EBITDA by 2029, the price target is €150, representing approximately 3x upside from the current price of €56 over 2-3 years.

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Solid Försäkringsaktiebolag (SFAB.ST) is a small-ticket, non-life insurer that sells insurance through third-party distribution partners, offering personal safety products (income protection, PPI), product insurance (bikes, phones), and assistance services (car warranty, travel) at the point of sale, which reduces overhead and marketing costs. The company trades at 11x normalized earnings with an 89% combined ratio, 17% ROE, and is targeting 4-7% premium growth going forward. While there is cyclicality in the product segment, the other segments are reasonably defensible, and the company appears to be performing well within its niche at a reasonable valuation. The CEO has over a decade of tenure with no issues, and the company repurchased 2% of shares last year in addition to paying a 7% dividend. The investor has taken a new small position in the stock.

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