YB new stock pitches (Fri, Nov 7)

LibertyStream Infrastructure Partners (LIB.V) is a pre-revenue microcap ($78M market cap) pioneering direct lithium extraction from oilfield brine in the Permian Basin, operating with a major midstreamer partner and achieving 95%+ recovery rates from their 250,000 barrel pilot program. The company benefits from a perfect storm of catalysts including US lithium supply chain reshoring initiatives, upcoming Chinese export controls on lithium beginning November 8th, $3.7 million in North Dakota state grants received, and potential $30 million DOE loan applications submitted. Liberty's proprietary titanium-dioxide extraction technology is specifically designed for low-grade North American brines (30-50 mg/L lithium content), creating switching costs and first-mover advantages as their units integrate directly into partners' water disposal infrastructure. Near-term catalysts include commissioning their refining unit in Q4 2025, signing offtake agreements in Q4-Q1 with seven prospective customers (medical equipment, ceramics, glass manufacturers) who have already requested bulk samples, and potential partner name reveal in 2026. The company projects revenues of $108 million from 6 production units, $1.4 billion from processing 50% of Permian water, and up to $3 billion from both Permian and North Dakota operations, with each 900-tonne annual facility requiring $20 million CAPEX and 3-year payback periods. Key risks include potential partner acquisition, refining specification challenges, dilution from future financing needs, operational delays, supply chain constraints from export controls, higher-than-projected OPEX of $8,000 per tonne initially (targeting $4-5,000 long-term), and oil price sensitivity if Brent falls below $40. The stock has surged 169.76% in the last month despite minimal dilution history, with management maintaining 6.7% ownership and emphasizing shareholder-friendly capital raising through grants and promissory notes rather than equity dilution.

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CAPINFO (1075.HK), a Beijing-based IT services provider trading at $105 million market cap, presents a compelling sum-of-parts opportunity as the company owns a 26.24% stake (70.8 million shares) in listed Digital Authentication (300579.SZ) worth $346 million—three times CAPINFO's current market cap—plus $62 million in net cash and no debt. The company generated $95 million in H1 2025 revenue with profitable growth in its core business of developing software, building systems, and providing data processing services to government, healthcare, education, and enterprise clients across China. CAPINFO recently announced plans to sell up to 5.4 million Digital Authentication shares for approximately $25 million, which is material relative to its market cap. The sum-of-parts analysis suggests 4x upside potential without even valuing the core profitable IT services business, as investors are essentially getting a $346 million asset stake plus $62 million cash for a $105 million market cap.

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MDA Space Ltd. (MDA.TO) is a Canadian satellite manufacturer that supplies components for 80% of all satellites manufactured worldwide, currently trading at 17.5x NTM PE and an estimated 13x 2027 earnings. The company has strong catalysts for 2026/2027 including a $4.6 billion backlog with $13 billion in pipeline, tailwinds from supplying components for 80% of satellites, high-margin Radarsat2 satellite-as-a-service offerings, Canada's push for space sovereignty, and the Satixfy acquisition that will be earnings accretive by 2027. Key risks include the stock being down due to GSAT concerns (though viewed as insignificant), competitive pressures from SpaceX as the #1 player while MDA operates as a manufacturer for hire, potential lack of new contracts (though Telesat/GSAT should maintain momentum), and weak ROIC. The valuation assumes conservative projections of $2.3 billion revenue in 2027 as current contracts ramp to peak, operating margins remaining consistent at 11%, and $665 million in balance sheet cash mostly earmarked for acquisitions.

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