YB new stock pitches (Fri, Sep 4)

MongoDB is a solid buy-the-dip, with the core Atlas business looking stronger at scale rather than relying on a new AI SKU. Revenue rose 30% to $772M, the fastest growth since FY24 and $40M above the guide ceiling. Atlas sustained 29% growth for a fifth straight quarter, beat guidance by 300 basis points and posted a record $127M dollar addition, while NRR increased to 122% and record net customer additions of 2,900 brought the total to 70,600. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 24% from 15%, alongside a third consecutive GAAP-profitable quarter. Large-enterprise expansion of existing workloads remains the main driver; management says current AI benefits are small and guidance includes essentially no AI inflection, although AI-related usage cannot be separated from core cluster consumption. Management also cited a frontier lab moving chat memory from Postgres to Atlas for 10x faster reads. At roughly 10x EV/sales and 20% below the recent peak, the valuation is attractive if base consumption remains durable; the unresolved risk is that AI eventually changes workloads negatively. The position was initiated after hours in the $370s, with T+2 potentially offering a better entry after earnings-related chasing.

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Sangamo’s bankrupt equity trades around $0.16, with the current price framed as roughly reflecting base-case cash value while the Fabry milestones and tax shell provide additional upside. Contracted upfront asset sales total $163.6M, including $111M from PTC for the Fabry therapy, versus estimated claims of $110-$140M and a best guess of ~$122M; however, the liability estimate is explicitly the least-certain part of the analysis. PTC would owe another $80M upon FDA accelerated approval and $20M upon full approval. Those payments are assignable, have no end date, and PTC expects a rolling BLA submission in Q4 2026. Sangamo also has substantial NOLs that could be worth $50-$80M to a capable buyer, although the DIP lender may seek them for only $10-$20M; the equity committee has kept bidding open through plan confirmation. Expected recovery is 2.5x, or closer to 2x after time and liquidation costs, with a $0.57 upside case and roughly 30% downside if milestones, asset realization or estate costs disappoint.

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ILPRA has evolved from a tray-sealing specialist into an international packaging-technology group offering customised machinery, integrated production lines and lifecycle services, which management says account for about 25% of sales. Its buy-and-build model broadens the product portfolio, enables cross-selling and expands the installed base in a fragmented Italian packaging-machinery market. Revenue rose from €17.6m in 2016 to €84.0m in 2025, an 18.9% CAGR, while EBITDA grew at 23.5% to €16.2m. The next question is whether this larger business can convert growth into cash and stronger returns: net working capital reached €40.2m, roughly 48% of sales, net debt rose to €22.7m or 1.4x EBITDA, and EBITDA margin declined from 25.1% in 2022 to 19.3% in 2025. Applying 9x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/E equally produces estimated fair value of €12.24 per share versus €7.45 currently, implying 64% upside. Realisation depends on better working-capital efficiency, stable margins and continued EBITDA growth.

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