YB new stock pitches (Mon, Aug 4)

NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL), a leading ATM service provider, trades at 6x PE versus competitor DBD at 14x PE despite superior growth potential. NATL's ATM-as-a-Service (ATMaaS) segment is growing 30% annually, driving consolidated EBITDA growth of approximately 10% per year. The company's services-led business model accounts for 86% of EBITDA, with hardware contributing only 14%, providing stable, recurring revenue. NATL benefits from several tailwinds including bank outsourcing of ATM operations, the shift to higher-margin cash recyclers, and stable ATM install bases as major banks slow or reverse branch closures. Management expects to reduce leverage below 3x by Q3 2025, refinance expensive 9.5% notes after October 2026, and initiate share repurchases in H2 2025, which should drive 30% annual EPS growth. NATL generates a 15% free cash flow yield, providing downside protection while offering 270% upside to the $100 price target (13x FY27 EPS of $7.70). The stock remains undervalued due to its recent spin-off status, high leverage ratio, and lack of investor awareness, creating an attractive investment opportunity with significant upside potential.

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Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ.TO), a non-profit and government software business, has successfully executed a three-year turnaround with improvements across key metrics including SaaS subscription revenue growth, competitor displacement, channel partner growth, win rates, and new logo growth. The company projects SaaS ARR growth to accelerate from 15% in 2024 to above 20% in 2025, and exceed 30% in both 2026 and 2027, while adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to surpass 30% in 2027. With a current market cap just over CAD $200 million and trading at around CAD $9/share, Sylogist could reach CAD $15/share at its current 10x multiple. However, given that counter-cyclical, mission-critical recurring SaaS businesses with 30%+ organic growth, minimal churn, and decent operating leverage typically command higher valuations, applying a 15x multiple to 2027 EBITDA (CAD $35 million) versus peers at 30x would yield 110% upside. The business benefits from recession-resistant characteristics with high predictability due to its installed base, low churn, multi-year contracts, and annual price increases, providing good visibility 2-3 years ahead despite some execution risk.

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Macompta (MLMCA.PA), a French accounting software business, delivered impressive 28% organic revenue growth in Q4 FY25, maintaining its consistent execution record. The company operates debt-free and has never raised equity capital. Macompta recently launched a mobile app and plans to release a new product tier for businesses with 21-50 employees within the next 12 months. A significant growth opportunity exists in e-invoicing for FY27-28, contingent on Macompta becoming a partner dematerialisation platform (PDP) or partnering with one, a pivot necessitated after the French government cancelled its previously planned public platform option.

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