YB new stock pitches (Mon, Dec 1)

Ashtead Group plc (AHT.L) represents the largest position (30%) in a diversified offshore portfolio strategy that includes Seadrill (20%), NOL (20%), Transocean (15%), and Valaris (15%), designed to avoid single-company risk while capturing the offshore recovery and consolidation trend. Ashtead serves as the 'undercovered' pick that significantly improves the portfolio's risk/reward profile without over-relying on companies with weaker moats, offering 3-5x upside potential in a bull market scenario, with expected rebound driven by the stock being oversold and several upcoming catalysts, representing an aggressive yet diversified exposure to the long offshore and industry consolidation thesis.

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Timee Inc. (215A.T) operates a short-term job marketplace in Japan with 70-80% market share, connecting businesses needing immediate staff with individuals seeking flexible work, achieving an 86% job fill rate compared to Mercari's failed competitor at only 40% despite being free. The company has demonstrated exceptional growth with +78% three-year revenue CAGR and operating margins expanding from 2% to 22%, targeting 30-40% operating margins long-term as incremental margins reached 40% last quarter. Timee benefits from Japan's structural labor shortage, with the country expected to be missing 3.4 million workers by 2030 and 11 million by 2040, particularly in Timee's core verticals of logistics (43% of jobs), retail (26%), and food service (17%). The platform serves 12 million registered workers with 1.8 million active users and 200,000 businesses regularly posting opportunities, taking a 30% commission on wages while providing instant payment compared to traditional monthly payment cycles. The company's high-touch model with 741 sales and customer success staff out of 1,200 total employees helps maintain superior service quality and customer retention. With current enterprise value of ¥138 billion, net cash of ¥12 billion, and ROE over 40%, Timee trades at 17x 2025 EV/EBIT and just 4.7x 2030 EV/EBIT compared to peers like Recruit at 19x with lower 16% operating margins and slower 4.4% annual growth, suggesting potential for 3x+ returns as the company projects ¥29 billion in operating profits by 2030 from current forecasted revenue growth in the low-20% range.

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HBX Group delivered mixed Q4 results with steady total transaction value but slightly declining revenue due to a weaker take rate, bringing full-year sales to the low end of guidance, though EBITDA came in broadly in line with expectations at nearly 60% margin (a notable improvement over last year) and cash conversion remained strong above 100%. The company showed resilience by maintaining profitability despite choppy booking momentum, with adjusted earnings per share beating market expectations. More encouragingly, management reported strong improvement in booking trends since the start of the new fiscal year, with double-digit TTV growth and mid-single-digit revenue expansion in Q1, both exceeding conservative market assumptions. For 2026, guidance implies TTV growth of 12-18% and modest revenue growth despite currency headwinds, with margins expected to hold and solid cash conversion continuing. While HBX carries a credibility discount due to its uneven forecasting track record, this update begins rebuilding trust as the company demonstrates cost discipline is working and operational leverage is improving. The stock trades at depressed levels despite the business model remaining intact, scale and technology infrastructure providing upside potential, and the company appearing to emerge from its transition phase with stabilizing trading trends and resilient margins positioning it for steadier growth and healthier cash flow.

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