YB new stock pitches (Mon, Dec 15)

Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT) is transitioning from a North American cyclical oil pressure-pumper to a substantial power platform delivering behind-the-meter, dispatchable power under multi-year contracts to data centers, with management targeting over 1GW capacity by year-end 2027 (potentially upsized to ~2GW as contracting begins) after their sales pipeline doubled in 90 days leading to term sheets and LOIs for more than 1GW of capacity. Trading at $16 versus a 2024 all-time high of approximately $24, the market is currently valuing the company solely as a frac cyclical despite the power business being similar to SEI which trades at over 10x 2027 EBITDA. The power business offers turnkey 'power-as-a-service' with natural-gas gensets under target 15-year contracts at $1.5M capex per MW generating $300K EBITDA annually, benefiting from tailwinds including the power supply crunch, utility rate inflation political sensitivity, and growing demand for on-site power solutions, while the core frac business appears to have bottomed after several quarters of budget cuts. The company has strategic advantages including decades of high-uptime field ops, deep vendor relationships, integrated fuel logistics, and a strategic alliance with Oklo for potential SMR upgrade paths, with the core business averaging $635M EBITDA annually from 2020-2024 and 13% ROIC over the past decade. Using a sum-of-the-parts valuation applying 10x EBITDA to the power business (1GW contracted by 2028) and 6x EBITDA to a conservative $600M normalized core business EBITDA, the price target is $33.31 representing 103% upside. Key risks include a downward oil price shock and failure to contract power capacity, while the main catalyst is signing an initial power contract which should lead to significant stock re-rating as the market ascribes appropriate value to the higher-multiple power business rather than valuing the entire company on its cyclical core.

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Remitly Global (RELY), a founder-led digital remittance leader with 3% global market share and 12% share in mature markets, has delivered impressive 5-year CAGRs of 43% revenue, 73% EBITDA, and 65% FCF per share, while maintaining strong customer metrics including 6x LTV/CAC ratio, sub-12-month payback, and 76 NPS score. The company's 2028 guidance projects 20%+ revenue and 35%+ EBITDA growth over three years, yet trades at just 8.5x 2026 EBITDA and 4x 2028 EBITDA compared to competitors at 20x+ multiples. Key catalysts include upcoming legislation in their largest market that will tax offline competitors, driving customers online where Remitly dominates, plus the company's shift from historical 7% annual share dilution to potential aggressive buybacks given 15% cash-to-market-cap ratio and strong FCF conversion. With marketing expenses representing 140% of 2025 EBITDA (mostly growth spending rather than maintenance), an adjusted owner's earnings multiple of approximately 5x 2028 represents a 75% discount to peers, suggesting potential for a 4x return if the stock re-rates to 20x normalized 2028 earnings, before factoring additional upside from buybacks.

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Kulicke and Soffa Industries (KLIC) is positioned to benefit from Intel's transition from CoWoS to EMIB packaging technology in partnership with Amkor, which has raised guidance citing 2.5D investments. EMIB requires fluxless thermal compression bonding (TCB) tools due to fine bump specifications that would be damaged by flux, and ASMPT cannot qualify under Intel's tight timelines for these time-sensitive, expensive AI packages. KLIC's long-term partnership with Amkor and the critical nature of the technology make them the likely equipment provider, with each TCB tool carrying a $1.25 million average selling price and one tool needed per 500 wafers per month of packaging capacity. These tools offer above-average corporate gross margins and higher-margin consumables, with every 1,000 EMIB wafers potentially generating approximately $0.022 in earnings per share upside plus potential for stock re-rating.

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