YB new stock pitches (Mon, Jan 19)

Venture Global (VG), a busted IPO trading at $8 versus its $25 IPO price, is an ambitious LNG exporter targeting over 100 MTPA capacity by the early 2030s through its modular construction approach that compresses development timelines to 2.5 years versus 6+ years for traditional facilities. The company operates Calcasieu Pass (12.4 MTPA capacity generating $4.9bn revenue and $2.8bn operating income in FY24), Plaquemines (28 MTPA projected capacity with first production in December 2024), and CP2 (30 MTPA total capacity with mid-2027 commercial operations), while planning CP3 and Delta projects requiring an additional $59-62bn investment through 2032. VG faces significant risks including $5-6bn in pending arbitration claims from customers like BP over delayed commercial operations declarations, leverage potentially reaching 10x EBITDA at peak, and EBITDA expected to decline from $6.4bn in FY25 to below $5bn in FY27 as the company transitions from spot sales to lower-margin contracted obligations amid anticipated LNG oversupply. The company's controversial strategy of leaving 50% of capacity uncontracted for spot market exposure creates high volatility but potential for outsized returns, with management projecting $11-15bn annual steady-state EBITDA by FY32. With current net debt of $31bn and total enterprise value of $55.7bn, the stock has a fair value range of $7-19.50 versus today's $8 price, suggesting potential upside if execution succeeds despite substantial near-term risks from legal disputes, high leverage, and market oversupply concerns through 2030.

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Bloober Team SA (BLO.WA) is a Polish game developer where the investor has initiated a new long-term position representing 3% of their portfolio (50% of a full position). The company successfully developed Silent Hill 2 Remake despite skepticism, and while their recent game Cronos hasn't reached 1 million units yet, it has good word-of-mouth spreading. Bloober has two unknown games launching in 2025, with one being a Nintendo exclusive, and they are working on a Silent Hill 1 Remake expected in 2027 with likely development of Silent Hill 3 as well, leveraging their strong ties with Konami. The company maintains a balanced approach between developing their own IP and safer development deals, benefits from Tencent's 20% ownership stake which provides M&A optionality, and is positioned to capitalize on Polish government subsidies for the gaming sector that are being doubled down on.

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Green Dot Corporation (GDOT), a $715 million market cap fintech targeting the underbanked population through prepaid debit cards, secured credit cards, and money processing services with partners like Walmart, Apple, Amazon, Intuit, and Uber, is separating its fintech business from its banking operations via a merger with CommerceOne, a small Alabama-based community bank founded in 2017 by serial entrepreneur Bill Smith (who previously sold Shipt to Target for $500 million). CommerceOne, currently a well-run C&I focused community bank with a low-40s efficiency ratio, 14% ROE, 1.4% ROA, and 2.99% cost of funds, will acquire Green Dot Bank to create a Bank-as-a-Service (BaaS) platform similar to peers Pathward Financial (CASH) and The Bancorp (TBBK), which trade at 3.0x and 4.0x tangible book value respectively due to their cheap deposits and significant fee income. With GDOT trading at $12.28 per share, the BankCo stub trades at approximately 70% of tangible book value, representing a significant discount to BaaS peers. The deal is expected to close mid-2026, with risks including integration challenges due to CommerceOne acquiring a bank several times its size with a remote workforce, concentration risk from Green Dot's 7-year initial deal and exposure to Apple and Walmart, and regulatory risks from serving the underbanked customer base, though the CPFB has been significantly neutered.

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