YB new stock pitches (Mon, Jun 15)

Energy Fuels (UUUU, $3.7bn market cap, down 40% from recent highs), a uranium and rare earth play, posted a 1Q26 operating loss of nearly -$17m on 0.41m lbs of term sales ($26m) and 0.1m lbs spot ($9.6m at an average $95.88/lb, above reported spot prices), but is near uranium operating breakeven once -$2.4m exceptional costs and -$8m exploration (developing Nichols Ranch and Whirlwind) are factored out. With only $23.3m of 2026 term contracts left, the balance of 2026 guidance (1.2m of 2m total annual lbs) should sell at spot, implying ~$45m revenue at steady $95/lb prices; the bull case sees $150/lb uranium driven by sulphur up 230% disrupting the 60% of supply mined via ISR, plus 56 GW of newly announced nuclear capacity (23.5m lbs/year demand) and IAEA forecasts reaching 1TWe. White Mesa can process 8m lbs/year (vs. 2m guided, expandable to 5m). The REE story includes the 10.5% owned Donald JV (potential 4,500 tpa NdPr plus 200-300 tpa Dy/Tb, ~$1.1bn revenue), Phase 1/Phase 2 White Mesa expansions ($410m capex, NdPr capacity to 6,229 tpa), the ~$300m ASM acquisition (Korean metals/alloys facility scaling to 3,600 tpa plus Dubbo project), Vara Mada in Madagascar (38-year life, $1.8bn NPV10%, 25% IRR, $500m+ annual EBITDA, $264m FCF), Bahia in Brazil, and high-value Ra-226/Ra-228 medical isotopes (at least $6m/gram, a potential $1bn business). Broker forecasts imply a 10,846% EPS increase in 2028 at a 16.5x P/E, but the author argues full revenue potential of $9.3bn (vs. ~$0.52bn assumed) implies a 1x P/E, with bear-case risks that many projects may not materialize or be as favorable. The author added to UUUU at $14.90 (now his worst performer, prior adds at $29 and $17.26), rebalancing UUUU and MKA to 50/50 by selling £3k of MKA and adding £3k of UUUU.

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Soon Lian Holdings ($5MD.SI) is a Singapore-listed (Catalist, founded 1983, IPO 2007) specialty distributor of engineering-grade aluminium alloys (1,300+ SKUs) pivoting from commodity trading toward higher-margin precision engineering, with a bullish thesis trading at S$0.28 (market cap ~S$30.24m/~€20.9m), 4.6x P/E (2.7x ex-cash), against a blended fair value of ~S$1.55 (~S$1.40 after a 10% margin of safety), implying +400% upside. The company is family-controlled (Soon Tien Holdings 67.5%, founding Tan family c.60%+, 2G Capital ~5%), founder-led with Tan Yee Ho as Executive Chairman and Tan Yee Leong as CEO, and operates four segments: Precision Engineering (60.7% of revenue, S$43.4m, +28.9% YoY, mid-to-high 20% margins, driven by semiconductor/AI/HPC/data center capex), Marine (25.2%, S$18.0m, +17.6% YoY, oil & gas/offshore-linked with ABS/Lloyd's certification barriers), Stockists & Traders (11.8%, S$8.5m), and Other & Aerospace (2.3%, S$1.6m, boosted by 2024 AS9100D certification enabling aerospace/defence entry); FY2024 revenue was S$71.5m (6.2% CAGR since 2009, EBITDA CAGR 9.9%), with 72.1% of revenue outside Singapore (Malaysia 35.2%, Singapore 27.9%, China/Taiwan 26.4%, rest of Asia ~10.5%). The balance sheet is strong with a net cash position of ~S$3.2m (improved from net debt of S$4.6m in 2022), a conservative 4–6% payout ratio prioritizing reinvestment, and an improved cash conversion cycle of ~174 days (DSO 87, DIO 203, DPO 116) versus 250+ in 2015. Catalysts include AI-driven precision metals demand, recovering oil & gas/marine cycle, higher aluminium prices, and aerospace expansion. Valuation uses a 60/40 DCF/relative blend (DCF ~S$1.57 at 12.3% WACC, 0.5% terminal growth, 11.5% EBITDA margin; EV/EBITDA 7x = ~S$1.65; P/E 9.5x = ~S$1.41). Key risks/bear cases include severe earnings cyclicality (the 2023 semiconductor downturn caused a S$6.1m inventory provision and S$4.5m net loss; prior crises in 2009, 2011, 2015–16, 2018–19, and 2020 caused sharp declines), semiconductor capex sensitivity, inventory obsolescence (51.7% of current assets), customer concentration (~41% of receivables in two customers), FX/USD exposure, trade tensions/tariffs, geopolitical/macro uncertainty, supply chain dependency across 15+ countries, labor/safety, and ESG/waste risks—making risk-reward heavily dependent on cycle timing and entry valuation.

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Nasdaq (NDAQ), a new position for Guinness Global Quality Mid Cap, is better understood as a financial technology and data company than a traditional exchange, with roughly 80% of revenues non-transactional and 60% recurring across regulatory software, anti-financial crime technology, market data, and index licensing. It is a smaller-cap analogue to larger exchanges like ICE, but has gone further in pivoting away from transaction-driven revenues toward high-margin SaaS businesses. The stock has been caught in the broader software sell-off on fears that AI will commoditise data and analytics platforms, but the thesis argues this misses the point: the losers will be software platforms without proprietary data, while those sitting on decades of unique, transactional data—precisely what Nasdaq's market data and index IP represent—will be the beneficiaries. With the company expecting to continue growing at double-digit rates, EPS growth guided at low-double-digits through 2028, and net debt improving from 5.2x to 3x post the Adenza acquisition, the fundamental trajectory is positive, while the recent software-related sell-off provides an attractive entry point.

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