YB new stock pitches (Mon, Jun 2)

Increased position in Upstart (UPST) by 12.67% following a Q4 revenue beat of $219M versus the $180M guidance, with management projecting $1B revenue for 2025. The company has strengthened its capital structure, with over 50% now coming from long-term committed capital versus the previous 'at-will' structure that contributed to its 2022 drawdown. Product diversification continues with Small Dollar Loans now representing 13% of new borrowers, HELOC surpassing 1,000 loans with zero defaults across 36 states, and Auto expected to meaningfully contribute to financials by 2026. Despite shares falling approximately 60% since February, analyst price targets now cluster above $100 following strong Q4 results. The investment thesis centers on Upstart being a misunderstood growth company with significant operating leverage, a lean cost structure, and outsized return potential, particularly if interest rate cuts materialize, though guidance assumes no additional cuts and a flat Upstart Macro Index.

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Glory Ltd. (6457.T), a leader in cash-handling machines, trades at 6.0x FY2026 EV/EBIT and 8.4x FY2026 P/E, presenting significant growth potential through overseas expansion and strategic acquisitions including Acrelec (self-service kiosks), Revolution (cash-handling solutions in the US), and Flooid (unified commerce platform). These acquisitions position Glory to capitalize on key tailwinds: rising labor costs, labor shortages, and increasing adoption of self-service kiosks, which boost customer spending in the food and beverage sector by 15% through features like upselling and reduced time pressure. Glory targets 500 billion yen in sales and 40-50 billion yen in EBIT by 2030, with software sales potentially generating 10-20% of revenue. The company has announced a special 15 billion yen buyback program to boost its price-to-book ratio to 1.0x, providing downside protection. Despite the decline in cash usage, Glory has diversified through cashless payment solutions and hybrid models that accept both cash and cards. With multiple expansion potential from 6x to 8-10x EV/EBIT, Glory offers 20-26% CAGR over a 5-year period.

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Intellicheck (IDN) provides real-time identity verification solutions through its exclusive AAMVA partnership, enabling instant verification of government IDs with 100% accuracy using patented algorithmic authentication. The company has secured two major social media platforms (likely Meta and either Google or Reddit) as clients and recently expanded a banking contract to $10+ million over three years. Q1 2025 revenue reached $5.2M (+18% YoY) with 91% gross margins and 92% recurring revenue from its SaaS model. IDN is significantly undervalued at 3x sales versus peers at 5-13x, with potential for $1 EPS by 2027, translating to a $30 share price target. Major catalysts include social media scaling to 100M+ quarterly users by 2026, banking sector expansion into loan origination and wealth management, vertical growth in automotive and trucking sectors, and installed base expansion (evidenced by 30% YoY growth in revenue per transaction). With $5M in cash, no debt, and potential Russell 2000 inclusion at $7 per share triggering 1.5 million shares of ETF purchases, IDN is positioned to benefit from the growing $21.8 billion identity verification market driven by regulatory pressures and increasing digital fraud.

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