YB new stock pitches (Mon, Jun 9)

CorMedix (CRMD) offers DefenCath, an FDA-approved catheter lock solution containing taurolidine paired with heparin that reduces catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) by 71% in dialysis patients. With a total addressable market of 170,000 patients and contracts already covering 70% of this market through agreements with four of the five largest dialysis organizations, CRMD is positioned for significant growth. The worst-case scenario analysis still yields a $1.8 billion terminal value based on just 10% market penetration (10,000 patients) and severe price erosion to $50/vial (from current $250/vial). DefenCath began its Transitional Drug Add-On Payment Adjustment (TDAPA) phase in July 2024, with Medicare fully reimbursing clinics for the first two years before gradually reducing payments. Real-world evidence data expected next month could strengthen CRMD's position in maintaining favorable reimbursement, given that each CRBSI costs the healthcare system approximately $63,000. The product faces limited competition with regulatory exclusivity through 2033 and addresses a serious medical need where 25% of patients with CRBSIs die within 90 days.

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Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp (SES.TO) has successfully transitioned from a volatile oil/gas company to one with stable earnings, yet remains undervalued at 7.9x EBITDA compared to waste peers trading in the high-teens. Since April 2024, management has executed on multiple catalysts: repurchasing 23% of outstanding shares, changing the company name from Secure Energy Services, gaining new waste/industrial analysts (Scotia Bank, 8 Capital, Stifel), and attracting traditional waste investors like Capital Research. Despite a 29.8% stock price increase to $15.02, significant upside remains. The most compelling catalyst would be selling a controlling stake in the pipeline business (potentially at 10-11x EBITDA), which would simplify financials, create a pure-play waste business, help change their GICs code from Oil & Gas, and establish a higher valuation benchmark. This transaction would generate approximately $779M in net proceeds after taxes, enabling another substantial share buyback while keeping leverage under 2x. The combination of being valued as a waste company and executing additional share repurchases could drive the stock to $26-28 per share, representing 77% upside from current levels.

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Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI.JO) is a diversified investment holding company led by Johnny Copelyn, a proven capital allocator with decades of disciplined investment experience. The company's portfolio spans multiple sectors including gaming, media, transport, hospitality, and energy. The key investment thesis centers on asymmetric upside potential from HCI's participation in the Namibian Orange Basin offshore oil developments, considered one of the most promising hydrocarbon regions globally. Despite healthy cash generation from its existing portfolio and significant earnings growth potential as Orange Basin developments come online, HCI trades at a deep value that reflects neither the quality of its underlying assets nor the substantial optionality embedded in its energy exposure. Management has significant skin in the game, contrarian instincts, and a demonstrated ability to unlock value over long cycles, making HCI an attractive investment opportunity insulated from global economic turbulence.

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