YB new stock pitches (Mon, Oct 20)

AmpliTech Group (AMPG) is an RF amplifier company trading at 1x EV/Sales despite projected 125%+ revenue growth, representing a significant valuation anomaly compared to peers. The company has secured $118 million in LOIs from two Tier 1 telecom customers for its 64T/64R Massive MIMO ORAN 5G radio units, with $8 million already delivered in Q2 and management guiding for at least $24 million revenue in 2025, doubling to approximately $50 million by 2026. AMPG is positioned to benefit from the ORAN megatrend driven by telecom carriers seeking 30% cost savings and flexibility from vendor lock-in, plus government 'Buy America' provisions favoring domestic suppliers over foreign competitors like Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei. The company's competitive advantages include being the only vertically-integrated US-based ORAN 5G vendor with patented LNA technology, 23 years of specialization, and established relationships with major clients including Viasat, Lockheed, and L3Harris. Bull cases include potential for additional orders from existing customers beyond the LOIs, new MNO customer wins, and call options on quantum computing (where AMPG supplies cryogenic LNAs to IBM at $5-7k per unit), defense/hypersonics, and satellite communications markets. The company expects to achieve profitability by Q1 2026, with gross margins recovering from near 0% in Q2 (due to one-time ramp-up costs) back to target levels around 40% by H2 2025. Bear cases and risks include CEO Fawad Maqbool's lack of capital markets experience (evidenced by a $3.5 million Bitcoin fraud loss), potential margin pressure if the company is chasing revenue over profitability, lumpy quarterly results due to hardware shipment timing, potential scaling issues during ramp-up, and limited market patience for execution delays. With 30% insider ownership, no debt, and a clean balance sheet, the stock could potentially reach $10-15 per share (versus ~$3 currently) if the company achieves projected $150 million revenue by 2028 with 15% operating margins, representing 300-400% upside potential.

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Haw Par Corporation Limited (HAWPF), a Singapore holding company trading at a $3.4 billion market cap, presents a compelling value opportunity at a 35% discount to an estimated $5 billion intrinsic value comprised of the iconic Tiger Balm brand valued at $1 billion (15x $70 million annualized earnings), a $2.7 billion stake in United Overseas Bank (UOB), $750 million in cash and equivalents, plus other minor assets including properties and an aquarium. The company pays a 2.5% dividend yield with a history of consistent growth and occasional special dividends, while Tiger Balm has demonstrated steady growth from $25 million operating profit in 2000 to current $70 million run-rate earnings. Key catalysts include Singapore's $5 billion Equity Market Development Program targeting small and mid-cap investments, potential corporate structure simplification following the 2023 death of longtime Chairman Wee Cho Yaw and transition to his five children, and management's stated acquisition plans for deploying excess cash. Primary risks include the complex Wee family cross-shareholding structure that may prevent value realization for minority shareholders, historically unproductive cash management with 15% of intrinsic value held in cash and treasury bills, the illiquid nature of the large UOB holding, and execution risk on management's acquisition strategy, though the company's high-quality asset base and strong fundamentals provide significant downside protection at current valuations.

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Civeo Corporation (CVEO) is a remote hospitality provider trading at a massive discount to competitors, with a book value of only $7,833 per room versus Black Diamond Group at $32,000 per room and Target Hospitality at $25,802 per room, despite generating similar free cash flow margins. The company operates accommodation services for energy and mining companies in Australia (77% utilization, strong performance) and Canada (35% utilization, severely depressed due to oil sands downturn), with the Australian business being the 'jewel of the crown' exposed to high-quality metallurgical coal in the Bowen Basin, while the Canadian business serves oil sands operators but suffers from low utilization rates. Engine Capital, managing over $1 billion in assets, wrote an activist letter in March 2025 pushing for value realization through share buybacks, leading management to suspend dividends, authorize repurchases of up to 20% of shares (30% completed by June 2025), and commit 100% of annual free cash flow to buybacks while targeting 2x net leverage. Key catalysts include potential Canadian oil sands recovery through projects like Coastal GasLink Phase 2 for LNG Canada, expansions at ConocoPhillips' Surmont, Imperial Oil's Cold Lake and Kearl projects, and Suncor Fort Hills ramp-up, plus Australian growth with Stanmore's South Walker Creek expanding from 4 Mtpa to 6.3 Mtpa and targets to reach 500M AUD revenue by 2027. The company faces risks from continued Canadian oil sands weakness, lease rollover issues for lodges on provincial land (leases expiring 2025-2030), and potential oversupply in commodity markets. Valuation scenarios range from a bear case of $50M FCF at 3x multiple yielding $16 per share, normalized cases of $75-85M FCF at 5x multiple yielding $36-40 per share, to a bull case of $95M FCF at 7x multiple yielding $63 per share, with an expected value of $38.4 per share representing roughly 80% upside from current levels, supported by the company's ability to effectively buy back the entire company within five to six years at current FCF levels.

Read the full article here. Read time: 16 min