YB new stock pitches (Mon, Sep 21)

Vizsla Silver aims to develop Panuco into the world’s largest single-asset primary silver producer, with targeted first production in late 2027. The feasibility study estimates 17.4Moz of average annual payable silver-equivalent production over 9.5 years at $10.60/oz AISC and $1.8B of after-tax NPV at a 5% discount rate; extrapolation to current metals prices implies roughly $3.4B. The project is fully funded with $406M of cash, supported by a 5% convertible due in 2031 whose capped-call structure effectively raises the dilution threshold from $5.84 to $10.51. If Panuco reaches production, the shares are estimated at $8-$12. The immediate requirements are the environmental MIA, expected in 4Q, and a security-conditioned return to site by year-end 2026. Operations were suspended after ten workers were kidnapped in Sinaloa; nine were found in mass graves and one remains missing. Renewed violence, a delayed MIA, asset seizure and capex overruns remain the principal risks, although the cash balance and long-dated debt provide downside support if development is delayed.

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Edgewise is now a cardio pure play with ~$2.0B of cash, a late-stage HCM asset in EDG-7500, an early HFpEF program and an enterprise value of ~$2.7B; management says funding extends through approval. EDG-7500 is a sarcomere modulator rather than a myosin inhibitor and has so far shown no exposure-to-LVEF relationship. If FDA accepts a Phase 3 design without echoes during titration, it could become the first sarcomere-directed HCM therapy prescribed outside the echo and REMS infrastructure constraining both approved CMIs, expanding the addressable market rather than merely taking share. FDA end-of-Phase-2 feedback is the last overhang, with protocol lock expected around October and Phase 3 guided to begin in 4Q26. rNPV is $57 base, $61 on Street assumptions and $83 bull versus a $43.63 share price. A $65-$75 acquisition would imply a roughly 50-70% premium and 2.4-2.9x risk-adjusted peak sales, in line with recent precedents. A deal is not assured, but pressured pharma buyers, a sale-ready cap table, existing banking involvement and a pre-protocol-lock window create the setup; otherwise, the fundamental valuation supports the position.

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Eolus trades at 5x earnings and below tangible book, and by 2028 should hold more cash per share than the company’s current share price, providing the valuation floor. Investors are paying little for a 14.8 GW development pipeline comprising 8 GW of solar and batteries and 6 GW of onshore wind. Its late-stage Swedish projects have secured scarce grid connections amid queues totaling roughly 20 GW of new generation and 25 GW of new consumption. Demand is also improving: Amazon recently signed PPAs for four Swedish wind farms, three developed solely by Eolus, while a single milestone payment from a US project sold in 2022 would equal roughly 20% of the current market cap. OX2 and Arise, the closest listed comparables, were acquired at 43% and 56% premiums. The thesis requires already named and dated projects to convert and the bond to be refinanced on schedule. Eolus lost SEK 356m in 2025, including SEK 240m of impairments, and the resulting bond restriction blocks dividends and buybacks until the May 2027 first call date

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