YB new stock pitches (Thu, Aug 27)

Walmart trades at 38x trailing earnings — dot-com-era territory (44.5x in May 2000) — but without the growth engine that justified it then: EPS compounded at 18% into 2000 versus roughly 6% now, and U.S. comparable sales just slowed to 2.6%, the lowest in over six years, sending shares down ~9% Thursday. The author values WMT at ~$250 billion against its $825 billion market cap. The mechanics: Walmart reinvests 64% of $41.6B operating cash flow at ~9% after-tax, with buybacks and dividends each adding ~1%, implying ~8% total return only if the 38x multiple holds. If the multiple reverts to 16x (the S&P 500's long-term median) by 2036, an ~8% annual compression drag would leave nominal returns flat — echoing the 2000–2010 precedent (44.5x→13.1x, 1.8%/yr, negative real). The author sees margins likelier to contract than expand, potentially halving the multiple. The key risk: WMT is a historically great compounder and consumer-defensive safe haven (GFC EPS +7.6%).

Read the full article here. Read time: 3 min

Cheapest producing copper equity raper_capital can find on the ASX, held through Alara's 51%-owned Omani Al Wash-hi Majaza JV (AHRL); trades at ~1x FCF (A$34mm market cap at 3.7c) against a mine that in the June 2026 quarter printed record sales of 2,077t copper and 1,556oz gold, A$21.4mm operating cash flow, and repaid A$41.2mm of borrowings, cutting AHRL net debt to A$96.4mm. Author says the three main overhangs are lifting: won its Omani licence lawsuit on the merits at the Ibra Primary Court in June 2026 (plaintiffs appealing, first hearing early November 2026), completed in August an oversubscribed, renounceable 3-for-20 entitlement offer at 3.2c raising A$3.85mm designed to fix the 2024 Takeovers Panel complaints (insiders took up commitment shares at 3.2c), and the plant has run at or above 110% of nameplate for four consecutive quarters (nameplate formally declared March 2026).

Read the full article here. Read time: 11 min

Atrium initiates coverage of Mayfair Gold (MFG.V) with a BUY and C$8.25 target (~96% upside), arguing the market misprices the 100%-owned Fenn-Gib project in Ontario's Timmins Gold Camp (4.3Moz Indicated @0.74 g/t). The central mispricing: MFG trades at ~US$44/oz M&I vs. peers ~US$107 and 0.19x vs. peers' 0.32x NAV, despite a January 2026 PFS demonstrating strong, gold-leveraged economics — ~1Moz reserve @1.29 g/t, 64.1Kozpa over a 14.3-year LOM (71.3Koz years 1-6), $450M initial capex, AISC US$1,292/oz, and NPV5% $652M/24% IRR/2.7-yr payback at US$3,100 gold, rising to >$1B/>34%/<2yr at US$4,100. Atrium's base NAV is C$1,093M at US$4,000 LT gold. The thesis rests on a deliberately smaller high-grade start-up (4.8Ktpd, <5Ktpd) to qualify for Ontario's provincial '1P1P' permitting, avoiding federal review and pulling re-rating forward ~5 years. Hidden upside: PFS uses only ~25% of Indicated resources (~3.2Moz remaining) plus a ~450Koz stockpile, potentially internally fundable. Near-term catalyst is 1P1P approval (anticipated in the coming weeks/H2 2026), then financing/Indigenous agreements (2027), construction decision (2028), first production (2030). Insiders hold ~35% (Muddy Waters ~17%). Principal risk is financing/dilution (rated average) — only ~$23M cash, no debt, requiring debt/equity to fund capex; a Barrick back-in right exists but requires a 5Moz report and expires August 2032, which Atrium does not expect to trigger.

Read the full article here. Read time: 23 min