YB new stock pitches (Thu, Jan 15)

ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC), the former Wish e-commerce company, has been transformed into a tax-efficient public acquisition platform controlled by Abrams Capital and BC Partners after selling its e-commerce assets in 2024 for ~$170 million and retaining ~$2.9 billion in NOLs worth an estimated $2-4 per share. The company acquired US Salt, a 132-year-old high purity evaporated salt producer with 40-45% EBITDA margins, for 14.5x NTM Adjusted EBITDA ($907.5 million enterprise value) through a financing package including $292 million cash, $240 million debt, $115 million rights offering at $8 per share, and $315 million Abrams equity rollover. US Salt generates ~$35 million in levered free cash flow and is estimated to be worth $7+ per share alone, benefiting from geographical freight advantages in the Northeastern US, stable demand for evaporated salt, and 3% annual price increases over 25 years. The platform targets 9-18% long-term free cash flow per share growth through 5-10% organic growth and 5-10% acquisition-driven growth, focusing on niche, high-margin, cash-generative businesses with high barriers to entry. Management includes no-salary leadership with Mark Ward as President, Ted Goldthorpe as outgoing Chairman, David Abrams and Raja Bobbili as directors, all aligned through their BC Partners and Abrams Capital ownership, with the structure designed to preserve NOLs while avoiding IRC section 382 ownership change restrictions. The investor has taken a new position with an average price of $7.60 and estimates LOGC to be worth $9-11 per share, with potential catalysts including additional acquisition announcements and NYSE uplisting upon US Salt deal closure, though notes the investment is early-stage as the company currently has no operations.

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Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a defense-focused consulting firm serving defense (~50% revenue), intelligence (~15%), and civil (~35%) government agencies with technology solutions like digital transformation, cyber defense, and AI deployment, has de-rated from 30x to 14x EPS following the 2024 Trump election due to 'DOGE' cost-cutting fears. Despite near-term earnings and contract award headwinds under the new administration, Upslope believes these challenges are temporary and the current valuation compensates investors for short-term uncertainty, while the company should benefit from accelerating secular tailwinds including rising geopolitical risks, rapidly evolving technology threats, and expanding government size, with Upslope viewing bets on long-term government shrinkage, especially in defense and national security, as poor investments. Key risks include government budget and political uncertainty, general technology risks, labor inflation, recent CFO departure, and potential easing of geopolitical tensions.

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eBay Inc. (EBAY) is experiencing re-accelerating usage growth of +2.7% YoY with momentum building into year-end, setting up for a stronger quarter than market expectations according to TickerTrends' revenue forecast which points to upside versus consensus. The collectibles segment is inflecting with significant momentum driven by Logan Paul's 1/1 Pokémon Illustrator card auction that has reached $4.8 million in bids with 33 days remaining, which is expected to drive headlines and increased engagement across eBay's owned entities including eBay Core, TCGPlayer, and Goldin Auctions. TickerTrends data shows core marketplace usage troughed earlier in the year and has since accelerated meaningfully before the Logan Paul collectibles hype cycle began, suggesting continued upward momentum. Within the collectibles space, Pokémon holds a 38.2% share, followed by One Piece at 33.9%, Magic at 20.4%, and Yu-Gi-Oh at 7.4%, with Pokémon showing growth before the current hype cycle.

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