YB new stock pitches (Thu, Jul 31)

The Arena Group Holdings (AREN) is an undervalued media company trading at less than 9x 2025E EPS of 66 cents (likely conservative), currently in the midst of a remarkable turnaround showing 55%+ organic revenue growth in Q2 and shifting to profitability versus prior year losses. The company operates digital media brands across Sports & Leisure, Finance, and Lifestyle verticals, including Athlon Sports, Thestreet, and Parade. AREN's turnaround stems from exiting the unprofitable Sports Illustrated business and implementing a new variable compensation model where writers receive revenue shares based on content performance. Key catalysts include: upcoming Q2 results (mid-August), potential guidance beat and raise, diminishing selling pressure from disgruntled investors, debt refinancing (reducing 10% interest to approximately 8%), possible stock buyback program, increased investor relations activity, and expanded sell-side coverage. The company is majority-owned (70%) by Manoj Bhargava, the billionaire founder of 5-Hour Energy, who also holds AREN's $120 million debt maturing in December 2026. With seasonally strong Q4 ahead and solid free cash flow generation, AREN presents an attractive opportunity for both growth and value investors.

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Intellicheck (IDN) is a SaaS identity verification company trading at 2.5x FY25 revenue (versus private comps at 7-10x ARR), with 90% gross margins and 95% recurring revenue. The company is pivoting from retail (now 35-40% of revenue, down from 70%) to higher-growth enterprise verticals including title insurance (40% market share, 350% YoY growth), banking (50% YoY growth), automotive (28-42% YoY growth), and social media (multi-year seven-figure deal with a major platform, speculated to be Meta). IDN has $5.1M cash, no debt, and expects to be FCF positive in FY25. The company offers industry-leading 99.9% fraud detection accuracy versus 65-75% for OCR-based competitors. Recent developments include expanded deployments with top-10 banks, new title insurance providers, auto dealer rollouts across 2,600+ locations, and new partnerships in background screening and cryptocurrency. With $50-100M ARR potential, implied share price ranges from $17-51 versus the current $5.50, with potential for a $15+ per share takeout as the identity verification market benefits from secular tailwinds in fraud protection.

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JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), a toy maker specializing in Nintendo, Disney, and Sonic brands, presents a seasonal deep value opportunity with 40%+ upside potential. Currently trading around $17.50, the stock is significantly undervalued at just 5-6x earnings, ~2.5x EV/EBITDA, and below book value despite improved margins and a debt-free balance sheet. After recently retiring its preferred stock and initiating a dividend, 100% of cash flow now benefits common shareholders. The company generates most of its cash flow in Q3/Q4 through toys and Halloween costumes, yet has pulled back 10% after slightly negative Q2 earnings. This setup mirrors the past two years when the stock bottomed in summer before rallying to $35 by February. With a strong product lineup for Halloween and holiday retail, and most investors not focusing on holiday names until September, JAKK offers early positioning potential with a conservative price target of $25, possibly exceeding $30.

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