YB new stock pitches (Thu, May 21)

TPC: 130-yr civil contractor w/ $19.8B backlog (3.5x rev), up from $16B megaproject wins past 18mo at higher margins. Civil 13.7% margin (vs 1-10% historical), Specialty turning profitable after -17-21% losses. 2026 EPS guide $4.90-$5.30 (14.8x fwd P/E), 2027 'significantly higher than $5.30' w/ double-digit rev growth locked in. $404M net cash, 1st dividend initiated, 11.875% notes refi mid-2026 adds $0.26-$0.32 EPS. Data center expansion coming. Risks: $175M W/Element appeal, megaproject execution, Tutor family selling 12% float. Trading 50% discount to data center-exposed MEP peers (30-48x).

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RAVE Restaurant Group, a micro-cap pizza franchisor trading at 6.7x EV/EBITDA with ~31% EBITDA margins and >90% FCF conversion, operates primarily the Pizza Inn buffet concept (90% of revenue) which has shown remarkable resilience with +8% same-store sales in calendar Q3 2025 while fast-casual peers experienced significant declines, with Chipotle turning negative, Sweetgreen down nearly 8%, and Cava decelerating from 13% to 4%. The company has zero debt, $12.0 million in net cash as of Q3 FY2026, only 23 employees, and generates $3.9 million in LTM Adjusted EBITDA through a pure-franchise model collecting 4% royalties, 2% advertising fees, and >4% supplier rebates from approximately 97 domestic and 19 international Pizza Inn restaurants plus 16 declining Pie Five locations. Under CEO Brandon Solano since October 2019, the company has achieved six consecutive years of profitability, five consecutive years of buffet unit count growth, 23 consecutive quarters of profitability, retired all debt by September 2022, and driven +20% sales lifts through store reimages and ~30% sales lifts with the $8 all-you-can-eat promotion. The growth thesis centers on a pipeline of 30 signed franchisees with 13 stores under contract to open within the next three quarters, four already opened year-to-date, supported by Pizza Inn's legacy brand awareness from its peak of 745-865 units in the 1980s when it was America's second-largest pizza chain. Unit economics are competitive with peers at $415k-$793k build-out costs, $1.2-$1.4 million AUV, and 3-4 year payback periods, comparable to industry leaders Wingstop and Domino's, while RAVE trades at roughly one-third the average highly-franchised restaurant multiple of ~18x despite comparable margins and superior unit economics. Key risks include unproven sustainability of unit growth execution, the potential for the company to go dark given its micro-cap status and limited investor relations, and the need to validate the transition from same-store sales improvements (driven by refurbishments and operational fixes that are now largely complete) to sustained high-double-digit unit growth, though the buffet format's clear value proposition at sub-$12 per head positions it advantageously against the struggling fast-casual segment currently squeezed between discounted QSR and better-perceived casual dining.

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Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP.L) is a Kurdistan oil producer whose shares have returned to focus following the normalization of the Iraq-Turkey export pipeline drama, as the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which was shut for over two years forcing producers into discounted local sales, restarted exports in late 2025 and continued into 2026 under interim agreements restoring international pricing and regular payments. Management guides 2026 production at approximately 40,000 barrels of oil per day and positions this year as pivotal with plans to restart drilling later in 2026, contingent on stable export payments. The Shaikan field is currently shut in due to the Iran crisis, though other Kurdistan producers resumed production last week and GKP is expected to follow. The investment case centers on the Shaikan field's large resource base and relatively low lifting costs, a management team that has successfully navigated Kurdistan's payment chaos, a wide discount to net asset value on a normalized export basis, and a history of meaningful dividends when payments were flowing.

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