YB new stock pitches (Thu, Oct 9)

Personalis (PSNL), trading at $7.30 per share with a $650M market cap, has developed NeXT Personal, an ultra-sensitive blood test that detects cancer recurrence 12-18 months earlier than CT/MRI scans by tracking up to 1,800 tumor variants compared to competitor Natera's Signatera which tracks only 16 variants. Despite being used by over 600 oncologists with 98% retention and 59% quarterly volume growth, NeXT Personal contributes less than 1% of PSNL's $85M revenue because it lacks Medicare reimbursement, with the company absorbing test costs while awaiting Q4 2025 Medicare approval which represents the key catalyst. The company's exclusive distribution partnership with Tempus ($15B market cap), which owns 14.5% of PSNL and recently filed to increase to 19.99%, provides access to 50% of U.S. oncologists through integrated EMR systems making test ordering a one-click process, with a capped $9.6M annual distribution fee ensuring attractive unit economics. With an estimated 5 million annual surveillance tests in the U.S. market across breast, lung, and colorectal cancers, capturing 6% market share could generate $100M EBIT by 2029 versus the current $500M enterprise value, implying a potential $2B valuation at 20x EBIT multiples. The primary risks include reimbursement denial and execution challenges in scaling lab operations, while additional upside exists from the $85M legacy biopharma business, government contracts, and data licensing royalties with Tempus that could add another $1B in enterprise value by 2029.

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Fiserv is a fintech giant serving banks, credit unions, fintech companies, merchants, and government institutions in over 100 countries, generating over $20 billion in annual revenue through payment processing, card operations, merchant services including the fast-growing Clover POS platform, and comprehensive banking technology solutions. The company benefits from scale, diversification, high customer switching costs due to long-term contracts, strong free cash flow generation, and robust infrastructure scalability, with its fastest-growing segment being merchant acceptance where the fee model capitalizes on increasing digital payment volumes. Despite solid results, the stock has declined approximately 40% year-to-date due to merchant payment growth deceleration below expectations, particularly in the Clover platform, and management reducing organic growth outlook to the lower end of its original range, causing investor disappointment given previously high valuations and optimistic assumptions. Trading at 13x this year's expected earnings, the company's long-term profitability growth trend remains largely intact according to management's assessment, with calculations showing significant upside potential as the current price represents a large discount to intrinsic value.

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Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. (GMX.TO) is a mining royalty company with 256 properties (mostly in Quebec) founded and managed by 77-year-old CEO Jack Stoch, trading at approximately 20% of its asset value with a $70 million market capitalization versus $35 million in cash and marketable securities plus an estimated $300 million in proven ounces value. The company operates conservatively under Stoch's leadership, plowing all cash flow into acquiring more mineral rights with land holdings growing at a 10% compound annual growth rate, and has successfully navigated deals with major mining companies like Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle in the past. With gold flirting with $4,000 per ounce (closing at $3,950), previously marginal properties have become viable for development, as demonstrated by the recent Bald Hill property transaction where Globex acquired the asset for an estimated maximum of $200,000 CAD in 2021 and optioned it to Big Red Mining Corp for $2 million CAD over four years plus 1.1 million shares, $5 million in development costs, and a 3.5% gross metal royalty that could generate over 54% IRR. The stock surged 10% on Monday with no news, suggesting a potential major deal announcement is imminent, while risks include keyman risk with the 77-year-old CEO (though 61-year-old COO David Christie is positioned to succeed) and the historically slow pace of development under Stoch's conservative management style.

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