YB new stock pitches (Tue, Jul 14)

Workiva (WK) is a portfolio holding and near-monopoly in SEC reporting, with 95% of the Fortune 100, 89% of the S&P 500, ~50% of all US filers, and ~85% of market cap as customers; SEC reporting is 35% of revenue, with other financial reporting (~30%), SOX/audit/governance (~20%), and sustainability/ESG (~15%) rounding out the mix (recent wins include SpaceX and Anthropic). The company dominates via its beloved Wdesk workflow platform (praised '10/10' by customers), which lets multiple departments collaborate and features 'deep linking' that updates numbers across all documents simultaneously. Despite a ~50% selloff on AI fears (5.2x NTM revenue at 12/1/2025 to 2.6x now), Workiva is unusually AI-resistant because financial data must be 100% accurate/auditable, CEO/CFO carry personal legal liability, it's a multi-department workflow tool (not a replaceable 10-K generator), and pricing is value/metrics-based rather than seat-based—making in-house builds, AI-native competitors, and ERP (SAP/Workday) encroachment unlikely; on offense, Workiva is adding AI features (tie-out agent, MD&A roll-forward, earnings prep) and a new good/better/best pricing model (SEC Advanced charges a 20% uplift). As the only true platform, it takes share from point solutions (AuditBoard, Diligent, ServiceNow GRC) and legacy printers (DFIN, Toppan Merrill). Metrics: ~21% subscription revenue growth (19% total, dragged by shifting professional services to partners), multi-solution customers at 75% of revenue (+600bps y/y), >$500k ACV customers growing 39%, 97% gross logo retention, 110% NRR ex-FX; profitability improved sharply under CEO Julie Iskow with 1Q26 GAAP operating margin up 1800bps (R&D -2%, S&M +3% vs. revenue +20%), aided by talent upgrades (new CRO Michael Pinto, CPO, CFO, three SaaS board members) and elimination of inefficient overlay sellers, targeting 25-30% mature GAAP operating margins (~10x mature EBIT). A proposed SEC semiannual filing option is deemed immaterial (low-single-digit revenue impact). Valuation: at 2.6x NTM sales, modeling conservative $1.85B 2030 revenue (vs. $1.8-2.0B target, up from $1.05B in 2026), a 4x NTM revenue exit at YE2029 yields a 31% IRR (23% at 3x, 39% at 5x); downside case of 2.0x 2027 revenue is -20%. Workiva is viewed as a prime PE takeout target (fitting Thoma Bravo's criteria; comps: AuditBoard bought at ~13x ARR in 2024, OneStream at 8x NTM sales in 2026), where a 5-6x sales takeout ($6-7B EV) would represent a double to double-and-a-half; the dual-class structure gives founders 42% of the vote, but they are minimally involved and believed willing to sell. - link

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AUTO1 Group ($AG1.DE), often called the 'Carvana of Europe,' is a founder-led (CEO co-founder Bertermann still runs the business with a 10%+ personal stake), vertically integrated online used car platform that buys cars directly from consumers, holds them on its balance sheet, manages logistics, and sells to both dealers and retail consumers across 30 continental European countries. Last year it traded ~840,000 vehicles (2,300+ per day) with roughly 3% share of a highly fragmented €600 billion annual used car market. Its C2B model operates via local brands like WirKaufenDeinAuto, offering instant AI-generated pricing and immediate payment to eliminate private-listing pain points. A key differentiator is cross-border arbitrage—over 60% of vehicles are transported and sold in a different country—solving Europe's fragmentation across languages, regulations, and tax regimes. The business runs through two segments, with the core wholesale division Merchant (Auto1.com) accounting for 90% of volume and functioning as a fast-turning clearing engine holding vehicles ~30 days to limit inventory risk. Unlike US peers reliant on subprime financing, Auto1 originates high-quality prime/near-prime loans (per European lending laws) and packages them into ABS for low funding costs. Its competitive moat is built on network effects, scale economies, physical infrastructure (725+ drop-off branches, 12 refurbishment centers), and a proprietary dataset of nearly 6 million historical transactions since 2012, all highly difficult for competitors to replicate. The investment offers founder-led leadership, rapid growth in a massive market, and a dominant, strengthening competitive advantage, underwritten on a 2-3 year high-single-digit cash flow multiple.

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Moury Construct SA (MOUR.BR), a 100+ year-old Belgian construction company focused on residential, non-residential, and public (schools, hospitals, sports facilities) fixed-price projects while avoiding lower-margin civil engineering, trades at €740/share, or just 4.1X cash-adjusted earnings after netting out €380.73/share (€152.5M total) in cash. In FY2025, revenue grew 34% to €249.6M, operating profit grew 31% to €38.1M (15%+ operating margins), net profit grew 41% to €34.4M, and EPS grew 41% to €87.3, with the backlog rising to €371.5M as of February 28, 2026 (up from €316M end-CY2025 and €357M end-CY2024). The company operates via a decentralized structure of subsidiaries (Les Entreprises G. Moury 52% of revenue, BEMAT 40% and growing 53% YoY, plus D-FI, Mosabois, Mourylux, Mosafer, and Beerts). CEO Gilles-Olivier Moury and his holding vehicle G4 Finance now control over 50% of shares after buying out siblings in late 2024, incentivizing capital returns; dividends were raised to a €7.50 special (from €5.00) and €14.20 ordinary (from €12.50), with €523K of buybacks (890 shares at avg €588) limited by low liquidity. The bull case rests on whether the 15%+ operating margins are structural (implying a re-rating higher) versus the bear case that Moury is over-earning and margins will revert to mid-single digits (though margins have held for four years, with cheap valuation and huge cash pile limiting downside). Risks include industry cyclicality (heightened by more private projects), European skilled labor shortages, Belgian geographic concentration, subcontractor credit/counterparty risk, competition from larger lower-margin rivals, and market risk from a securities portfolio (up to 25% of net balance, including a 5.7% gold position). Compared to peers like Eiffage at ~10X EPS (with substantial net debt), Moury trades under 5X EV/EBIT and is considered one of the cheapest high-quality companies in the developed world; Absurdly Cheap Stocks sees 50-100% upside within 12 months and continues to hold it as a staple position.

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