YB new stock pitches (Tue, Jun 16)

Koil Energy Solutions (KLNG) is a subsea equipment supplier undergoing a turnaround under CEO Erik Wilk, appointed April 2024, who converted nearly two decades of consecutive annual losses into profits and delivered record revenue, hitting his three-year growth roadmap ahead of schedule by delivering its first integrated subsea distribution system (repositioning the company from a parts supplier to a fully integrated systems provider) and expanding internationally into Brazil (Macaé facility, March 2025), the North Sea (alliance with Norway's SubseaDesign AS), and West Africa. Despite record revenue, profitability is compressing, which management defends as a deliberate 'land-grab' growth investment strategy. The bull case centers on container tracking and customs data: Koil imported 30.4 metric tons of stainless steel tubing from Schoeller Bleckmann Edelstahlrohr (an Austrian Tubacex subsidiary), its largest steel tube shipment on record (nearly double its 2015 high), arriving in Houston in April 2026, consistent with Tubacex's February 2026 disclosure of €26 million in umbilical tube contracts from three global clients; if Koil's shipment belongs to these contracts, its share could exceed $10 million for unfabricated raw materials alone—more than double the market's estimated $4–5 million value for its August 2025 'major' order (covering 20+ proprietary subsea flying leads, likely its patented Loose Steel Tube Flying Lead, over 15 months). Order intake is accelerating, with five 'significant' and one 'major' award in 2025, plus three 'significant' and a 'major' award (a mobile offshore carousel deployment) early in 2026 amid 'record bidding activity.' The broader thesis rests on a multi-year subsea upcycle still in early innings, with E&P budgets up 69% since 2021, Westwood projecting 270+ subsea tree installations in 2026 rising to ~275 annually through 2030, peers like TechnipFMC guiding to higher orders through the end of the decade, and a US-Israeli war with Iran disrupting a fifth of global oil supply potentially triggering a 12–18 month North American upcycle; an imminent 'foundational' Brazil award (the world's leading deepwater producer) represents a major potential catalyst. Key risks include whether margin compression reflects structural pricing pressure rather than strategic investment, dependence on offshore activity, and the company's history of decades of losses (failing to profit even at $30 million peak revenue before 2014).

Read the full article here. Read time: 2 min

Gold Reserve Ltd. (GDRZF/CA:GRZ), a Bermuda-based former Canadian firm, is an early-stage play on Venezuela's reopening following recent political changes and the country's newly passed modern mining law geared toward attracting North American investors (aligned with the Trump administration's re-engagement). The company owns a $1.2bn financial claim against Venezuela (accruing interest annually; validity is not in question, but collection is) and a 45% stake in Siembra Minera, one of the world's largest undeveloped gold-copper deposits, hosting an estimated 52m ounces of gold and 5bn pounds of copper, with potential annual production of 850,000 oz gold and 74m lbs copper over a ~40-year mine life (M&I resources of 26.8 MMoz gold and 2.7 BBlbs copper, plus inferred resources). The deposit, previously worked by Placer Dome (1991-2001) and supported by a 2018 NI 43-101 PEA, is not grassroots exploration. The new legislation no longer requires government majority ownership, giving Gold Reserve the opportunity to restart the project, finance it more easily, and potentially increase its stake from 45% to 100% (with preference as existing partner); the financial claim could be offset against an increased ownership stake and future royalties. Despite rising over 300% since the author first recommended it at USD 1.06/CAD 1.49 in March 2023 to its current USD 5/CAD 6.50, the stock may be cheaper today given the revalued assets. Cantor Fitzgerald's 22-page May 2026 report sets a CAD 13 (USD 9.30) price target—over 2x current levels—based on valuing the financial claim at 40% of the claimed amount (in line with defaulted Venezuelan bonds), and the Siembra Minera project at USD 10.1bn (assuming gold at USD 4,000/oz and copper at USD 4.50/lb, below the ~USD 6/lb current price), making the 45% stake worth USD 4.6bn before applying a 0.2x development-risk discount to USD 911m, plus USD 150m cash less expenses; on its Siembra Minera interest, GRZ trades at ~0.1x P/NAV, well below large-scale peers, with sensitivity analysis yielding targets as high as CAD 51 per share. The main risks are development and political execution, contingent on Venezuela staying on its current trajectory and successful renegotiation of the Siembra Minera framework.

Read the full article here. Read time: 6 min

Bloomin' Brands ($BLMN), a casual dining company at $7.81/share ($668.7MM market cap, $1.4B EV excluding operating leases) with a portfolio including Outback Steakhouse (>50% of company sales), Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's, operates 1,452 systemwide locations (962 company-owned, 490 franchised; ~75% domestic), and is held as a management-led turnaround play trading at a compelling 4.3x FY27 EV/EBITDA (excluding operating leases), a 58% discount to peers (TXRH, DRI, EAT, CAKE), versus the 6.3x current trailing multiple and the 11x trailing multiple at which predecessor OSI Restaurant Partners was taken private in 2007. A revamped management team is restoring food quality, operational consistency, and guest satisfaction to reverse 4 years of traffic declines via $50MM of investments (new Outback steak lineup, labor model enhancements with servers covering 4 tables vs. 6 in peak hours, and chain-wide Ziosk tablet rollout) and $80MM of productivity savings over 3 years ($30MM in FY26), aiming to build off a near record-low FY25 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.0% while offsetting 5.0% commodity and 3.3% labor inflation. Underlying brand health is improving, with Outback guest satisfaction scores rising Y/Y for a third consecutive quarter in 1Q26 (a leading indicator), refreshes of the remaining ~300 Outback stores historically driving a 100-200bps traffic tailwind, and accelerating sales in March/April supporting reiterated FY26 US comparable restaurant sales growth guidance of +1.5% at the midpoint. Capital allocation priorities are investing in the business (~$375K/location to complete Outback refreshes by 2028; $190MM FY26 capex guide including 7 new US openings) and paying down debt to bring lease-adjusted net leverage below 3x from 3.8x at 1Q26.

Read the full article here. Read time: 2 min