YB new stock pitches (Tue, Jun 17)

SharkNinja (SN) is an innovation powerhouse with a 15-year track record of 20%+ CAGR, known for creating new product categories with viral launches like Ninja Swirl and CREAMi. The company maintains 50% gross margins and is reducing China exposure, targeting 90% non-China manufacturing by Q2 2025 and 100% by year-end to mitigate tariff risks. Management recently raised FY25 guidance to 11-13% revenue growth and 15-17% EBITDA growth, which appears conservative given the reduction of China tariffs to 30%. International expansion presents significant growth opportunities, with France and Germany alone projected to be a $2B business reaching profitability in 2025. The company's DTC channel currently represents only 10% of U.S. sales, providing additional runway for higher-margin growth as they revamp their website and CRM. SN is preparing to launch 25 new products in 2025 and may qualify for U.S. index inclusion in 2026, potentially catalyzing share demand. With strong consumer spending, historically recession-resistant growth, and superior innovation capabilities, the base case price target is $151 (65% upside) at 14x forward EBITDA.

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Jardine Matheson (JMHLY), a 200-year-old Asian conglomerate trading at a 40% discount to its $18.6 billion NAV, is undergoing radical restructuring under Chairman Ben Keswick, who has consolidated control following family leadership changes. The company has hired private equity executives including new CEO Lincoln Pan from PAG, signaling a shift from promoting insiders. Restructuring efforts include Hong Kong Land's announced $10 billion asset sales plan, Mandarin Oriental's hotel sales and shift to management contracts, and multiple Dairy Farm divestments across Asia totaling over $1.25 billion. The conglomerate has seven main businesses: Hong Kong Land (property), Astra (Indonesian automotive/finance), Dairy Farm (retail), Mandarin Oriental (hotels), Zhongsheng (Chinese car dealerships), Cycle & Carriage (Southeast Asian distribution), and Jardine Pacific (restaurants/construction). Key risks include poor capital allocation, exposure to declining Hong Kong property values (office rents down 40% since 2019), and the potential persistence of the NAV discount. The stock offers a 5% dividend yield with upside from ongoing asset sales and simplified corporate structure.

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Mayne Pharma Group (MYX.AX) presents an arbitrage opportunity after Cosette invoked a Material Adverse Change (MAC) clause to exit its binding A$7.40 per share acquisition deal. Cosette cited a Q3 sales drop of 11.3%, TXMD litigation (A$18.7M), and an FDA Untitled Letter (now resolved) as justification, but has failed to demonstrate these would reduce EBITDA by the required A$10.76M threshold. The MAC clause has never been successfully upheld in Australian courts, suggesting Cosette is likely seeking a price cut similar to the 15% reduction in the EQT-Metlifecare case. Despite these issues, MYX maintained its FY25 EBITDA guidance of A$47-51M (up 105-123% year-over-year). The current share price implies less than 40% probability of deal completion, with a fair break price around A$4.30 (6-11x EBITDA). A renegotiated deal could come at approximately A$6.70, representing a 10% reduction from the original offer, with shareholder voting scheduled for June 18.

Read the full article here. Read time: 11 min