YB new stock pitches (Tue, Mar 10)

Freightos Limited ($CRGO) is a micro-cap company with a $68 million market cap trading at approximately 2.2x trailing sales that operates WebCargo, the world's largest digital air cargo booking platform serving 5,000+ freight forwarders and 70+ airlines with access to 78% of global air cargo capacity and approximately 1.6 million transactions expected in 2025. The company is positioned to benefit from a major air freight crisis triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation, which has eliminated 18% of global air cargo capacity, grounded major Middle East carriers including Qatar Airways' 29 freighters and Emirates SkyCargo (representing 13.6% of worldwide air cargo capacity), cancelled 80%+ of Dubai airport flights, and forced European airlines onto longer, less efficient northern routes. The bull case centers on Freightos' revenue model being tied to booking value, meaning higher rates and increased disruption directly translate to higher earnings per transaction, while the crisis is driving more freight forwarders to digital platforms for comparison shopping and causing ocean-to-air modal shifts due to Strait of Hormuz concerns and Cape route delays adding 14+ days. The company generated $29.5 million in revenue for FY2025 (up 24% year-over-year) with an enterprise value around $40 million, is targeting EBITDA breakeven by Q4 2026, and operates in a $600 billion addressable market, though air freight rates remain 'stable' according to Freightos with the company expecting a 'potentially significant move in rates' as the lagging data catches up to the capacity crisis reality.

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Bireme Capital initiated a material new position in PINFRA.MX in Q1 2025, Mexico's largest toll-road operator with 27 concessions serving over 300,000 vehicles per day. The company grew EBIT from 2.5 billion MXN in 2011 to 11 billion MXN in 2024 while maintaining high-teens ROIC, yet trades at only 7x EBITDA and 10x PE compared to global peers like Ferrovial at 15-25x EBITDA. PINFRA emerged in 2005 under CEO David Penaloza from the restructured Grupo Tribasa, focusing on toll road concessions with conservative traffic assumptions and long durations, with roads offering significant time savings over parallel 'libre' highways around Mexico City. The investment thesis projects an 8% real IRR under conservative run-off scenarios with no capital reinvestment, 15% real IRR under realistic reinvestment scenarios, with significant upside potential if the controlling family sells given private equity interest in similar assets at 12-15x EBITDA and PINFRA's recent sale of a non-core port operation at 22x EBITDA. The opportunity exists due to broader Mexican market undervaluation, with 43% of Mexican equities above $100 million market cap trading below 10x EBIT versus roughly 10% in the US, and several road expansion and improvement projects position the company for further growth.

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$TROX - My favorite Strait of Hormuz beneficiary is Tronox Holdings plc (TROX): with 45% of the global sulphur supply temporarily off the market, it refines titanium mostly with chloride instead of sulphide; with Chinese competition potentially declaring force majeure and shutting in production, TROX should keep the market supplied. The market has not identified TROX as a beneficiary—the stock price is lower than when the war started—and, for my free rare earth strategy, I wanted an excuse to accumulate more TROX anyway.

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