YB new stock pitches (Tue, May 20)

Oscar Health (OSCR), an ACA marketplace insurer, presents an asymmetric return opportunity with three potential scenarios by 2027. In the worst case (10% probability), a full ACA repeal would result in liquidation at $2.77/share. The base case (50% probability) assumes the ACA remains intact without subsidy extension, with management guiding for 20% annual revenue growth to $13.25 billion and 5% operating margins, yielding $530 million in net income and a $31.36 share price at 15x P/E. The bull case (40% probability) with ACA subsidy extension projects 22% revenue growth to $13.7 billion, 7% operating margins, and $767 million in net income, reaching $60/share at 20x P/E. The probability-weighted expected value is $40/share, representing a 33% CAGR from the current $16.56, though investors should size positions carefully given the downside risk.

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New Horizon Aircraft (HOVR) has achieved a significant milestone, becoming the first eVTOL aircraft to successfully complete a stable transition flight using its innovative fan-in-wing design ahead of the projected Summer/Fall 2025 timeline. The Cavorite X7 targets 250mph speeds and 500-mile operational ranges, with the company's patented technology leveraging electric motors and batteries to create a simpler, safer eVTOL system without complicated rotating nacelles or tilt-wing mechanisms. This achievement reduces technology risk and validates Horizon's platform compared to competitors, as demonstrated in their half-scale prototype flight available on YouTube. With a market cap of just $18 million, HOVR appears severely undervalued relative to industry peers like Joby Aviation (JOBY, $5.7B) and Eve Holding (EVEX, $1.3B), despite lacking their major sponsorship. Following this milestone, analysts have increased their allocation from 4 to 5, maintaining a price target of $1.60, representing approximately 3x upside potential from current levels.

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Seko S.A. (SEK.WA), one of Poland's largest marinated fish producers, trades at 6.08x LTM EV/EBIT and 0.71x P/TBV with impressive growth metrics: 11.9% 3-year revenue CAGR, 48.5% EPS CAGR, and 17.5% ROIC. Founded in 1992 and family-led by Kazimierz Kustra alongside Tomasz Kustra and Joanna Szymczak, the company operates one of Europe's most modern fish processing plants with full European and U.S. export certification, offering over 200 SKUs ranging from herring in vinegar to ready meals. Despite being publicly listed since 2007, SEKO remains 62.49% controlled by parent entity Złota Rybka Sp. z o.o., where the leadership serves as managing partners. The company is investing PLN 25 million in strategic initiatives including supply chain assets, product line expansion into fish preserves and frozen items, and launching a franchised retail chain under the Złota Rybka brand. SEKO's book value to sales has grown at approximately 9% CAGR over five years, demonstrating steady strength, though investors should note the small public float and illiquidity following Novo Fundusz Inwestycyjny Otwarty's recent stake divestment.

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