YB new stock pitches (Tue, Oct 6)

Entravision’s investment case now rests primarily on Smadex; EVC’s ATS segment grew revenue 230% year over year and 18% sequentially in Q2, with the core book excluding the HK customer up roughly 81% year over year and 10% sequentially. Evidence that Smadex is more than a one-customer success includes continued HK wallet-share gains, transparent campaign-level measurement, strong non-gaming rankings, sophisticated clients and PubMatic-reported spend growth, although the AppsFlyer ranking basis is unclear. A rough SOTP—using a simplified proportional-revenue split of HK-customer EBIT and assuming its spend reverts to the 1Q26 level—assigns the HK customer 5x EBIT, core ATS 15x, media 4x EBITDA and spectrum about $276 million, producing a value near $15 per share, or 96% upside; valuing ATS at 15x FY26 estimated EBIT would imply nearly 3x the current share price. The central risks are concentrated customer spending, greater lumpiness from the large-account strategy, take-rate pressure, reliance on third-party supply and an uncertain spectrum-monetization timeline.

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Kazatomprom offers direct, low-cost exposure to an undersupplied uranium market: it produces roughly 20% of global primary supply, has 2026 AISC guidance of $39.00-40.50/lb versus ~$90 spot uranium, a net-cash balance sheet and a policy to distribute 75% of free cash flow. At $67.50 per GDR, the shares trade at about 16x trailing earnings with a ~4% dividend yield. The upside rests on realised prices catching up from $67.88/lb in H1 2026 toward ~$90 spot and $95+ long-term prices as legacy contract ceilings expire, alongside new volume; operating leverage could produce roughly 19% annual returns in the conservative scenario or 38% annually in the upcycle case, where the target reaches about $166 plus dividends over three years. H1 results show the near-term pressure: revenue rose 9% while attributable EPS fell 22%; margins faced higher taxes and sulphuric-acid costs, a stronger tenge and a greater share of profits going to minority JV partners. The main risks are delayed acid capacity and uncertain 2027 acid-supply contracts, higher state extraction taxes, Kazakhstan’s 75% ownership and political control, Russian-linked logistics and uranium-price weakness.

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ISDN is an Asia-focused industrial-automation distributor and integrator offering high-beta exposure to recovering APAC factory capex. Industrial automation contributes about 86% of revenue, spanning product distribution, application engineering and system integration, with potential demand from semiconductor capacity expansion, advanced packaging, labour-saving automation and China+1 investment across Taiwan, Malaysia and Southeast Asia. Misumi is the most useful listed demand read-through, with a 0.72 correlation from 2015 to 2026, while China PMI and SOX momentum have been unreliable proxies. At S$0.66, ISDN trades at approximately 13x FY27E EPS; applying 18x to FY27E EPS of S$0.051 gives a S$0.92 target and 39% upside, while the DCF indicates S$0.98. The central risk is that the model requires automation gross margin to increase from 24.4% to 30.0%. If ISDN remains primarily a pass-through distributor, or China recovery and project timing disappoint, earnings could remain volatile and the shares trade closer to 12-14x normalized earnings.

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