YB new stock pitches (Wed, Apr 9)

Evolv Technologies (EVLV), an AI-driven weapons detection company, is poised for a potential turnaround in 2025 after facing FTC investigations, accounting issues, and management changes in 2024. With best-in-class technology, 6000 units deployed, and $100M in ARR, Evolv expects 40% ARR growth and positive free cash flow by end of 2025. The company is set to release three quarters of earnings by May 19th, potentially shedding its delinquent filer status and resuming investor relations activities. Trading at 3x NTM EV/ARR compared to peers at 7.5x, Evolv appears undervalued. Catalysts include imminent financial filings, resumed analyst coverage, and potential short squeeze due to high short interest. Risks involve headline risk, competition from OpenGate, and potential recession impacts. The new CEO, John Kedzierski, a Motorola Solutions veteran, is expected to lead the company's revival. Motorola Solutions is also considered a potential acquirer given deep ties and distribution partnership.

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Orion Properties Inc. (ONL), spun off from Realty Income in 2021, trades at $1.85 per share with a 14.2% capitalization rate and $74.7/sqft valuation. The company owns 69 operating properties and 6 joint venture properties, totaling 8.1 million square feet with 73.7% occupancy and 74.4% investment-grade tenants. ONL has $502.3 million in net debt and faces risks from the struggling office sector. However, management sees upside potential in its core properties worth $450 million, with the remaining portfolio valued at $27.51/sqft. The company is cutting costs, including an 80% dividend reduction, and pivoting towards dedicated-use assets. Insiders have been buying shares, and the stock could potentially triple if valued at $100/sqft. Key tenants include the General Services Administration (16.3% of ABR) and Bank of America (9.4% of ABR), with a weighted average remaining lease term of 5.2 years.

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Galliford Try Holdings plc (GFRD.L) is a UK-based construction group specializing in building, highways, and environmental projects across the United Kingdom. With a market cap of GBP 337.1M and an enterprise value of GBP 181.6M, the company trades at attractive valuation multiples of 9x P/E, 5.8x EV/EBIT, and 11.1x EV/FCF. As one of the UK's largest Tier 1 infrastructure contractors, Galliford Try benefits from sustained demand for infrastructure improvements, which are generally less cyclical than residential and commercial real estate, providing a more stable revenue base and long-term growth potential. The company offers a compelling shareholder yield of approximately 9% through a combination of dividends and share buybacks, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the construction sector.

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