YB new stock pitches (Wed, Aug 26)

Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled offshore oil major trading at 4.6x trailing earnings versus XOM's 21.3x and OXY's 18.0x - despite earning $19.6B in 2025 net income (roughly 68% of Exxon's $28.8B) at just 18% of Exxon's market cap. The variant perception: the 'political risk' discount is a stale narrative, not a fundamental change. The author argues 2025 Petrobras is a demonstrably better business than the 2008 version that peaked near $295B market cap and ranked 12th most valuable company globally - 37% more production (2.99M bbl/d, +10.8% YoY), +$16.5B FCF versus -$1.7B in 2008, 35% less capex - yet trades at 42% of that 2008 market cap under the same president (Lula) and same state-control law. Supporting metrics: 13.4% FCF yield, 6.2% dividend, and $46.1B dividends paid 2023–25 against a $123B cap. Catalysts: a weakening dollar (DXY 98.80) lifting Brazil/EM, and a technical breakout above an 11-year ceiling near $18 (May high $22.24, +61.6% YTD) toward $32.60 resistance. Principal risk: state control of votes, board, and pump prices, plus March 2026 export taxes (12% crude, 50% diesel) that Petrobras's 20-F warns could hurt realized margins, with an October presidential election adding near-term uncertainty. Note higher leverage (1.42x EBITDA total, though ~0.5x ex-leases).

Read the full article here. Read time: 7 min

NEC.AX (AUD 0.97; EV AUD 1,644mn) screens as a dying media business at 10x NTM P/E and ~14% FCF yield on EV (~9% over the AU 10y), but the variant view is that consensus ignores Stan, its homegrown streaming asset — Australia's 4th-largest and fast-growing. In H1'26 Stan grew revenue +15% and EBITDA +24% YoY, even as Television revenue fell -14%, dragging group revenue -5% and masking the growth. Applying Netflix's 23x LTM EV/EBITDA and 7x EV/Revenue (author's napkin math, acknowledged as imperfect given Stan's smaller scale) values Stan alone at ~AUD 1,600–3,700mn; at the low end Stan covers the entire current EV. Two catalysts support recognition: management's proven capital allocation (sold Domain at a 60% premium, returned proceeds via special dividend), and WIN Group's creeping stake (now 27% economic, 23% voting), hinting at a takeover. Principal risk: secular TV decline persists and the hidden value stays unrecognized. Key diligence item: Stan's growth runway and its worth to a private buyer.

Read the full article here. Read time: 2 min

Tonies (TNIE.F) screens optically expensive at ~35x trailing/23x forward EV/EBITDA, but the author's variant view is that the market misreads a razor-and-blade 'quasi-bank' model as a speculative growth name. Each Toniebox drives ~20 figurine purchases (~€20 each) over 4.5 years, producing remarkably stable ~€60/box/year revenue; the CFO stated >€1.5bn in cumulative revenue is already locked in from existing cohorts even if zero new boxes ever sell. Runway is large: ~13m boxes versus a 550m-household TAM, with the US only 12% penetrated versus ~60% in Germany and North American Q2 sales up 85% cc. Management guides €1.4bn 2030 revenue (implying only ~14% box CAGR) and 16-18% EBITDA margins versus 8% in FY25, with capex <1% of sales. The author's base case yields a ~20.5% IRR driven by EBITDA growth, conservatively assuming a de-rate to 15x by 2030 (which he considers too cheap). Key risks: content-licensing cost inflation (now 11% of revenue) and Armira's 27.5% stake, now at year seven, potentially pressuring a sale. Under-followed and illiquid on OTC.

Read the full article here. Read time: 13 min