YB new stock pitches (Wed, Jan 21)

Auna SA (NYSE: AUNA), a Latin American healthcare provider operating clinics, hospitals, and insurance programs in Peru, Colombia, and Mexico, trades at a $342 million market cap and less than 6x both earnings and EBITDA while trading significantly below book value. The company has built a successful business in Peru with strong growth, expanded into Mexico (which faced doctor resistance to cost-saving methods but management guides to returning to growth in 2024), and Colombia (derailed by the current socialist government's slow bill payments but expected to improve in H2 2026 with a new conservative government). Trading at attractive valuations despite 3.5x leverage (with management targeting sub-3.0x), Auna generated $96 million in free cash flow over the past 12 months against its $350 million market cap, recently refinanced debt by issuing 2032 bonds at 8.75% to replace 2029 debts at 10%, and operates in a fragmented market offering significant M&A runway for consolidation. The stock sold off on non-economic reasons due to an institutional holder reducing position over antitrust concerns in Mexico, while investor concerns about potential equity offerings to fund M&A (given high leverage) also weigh on shares, creating a favorable risk/reward scenario where modest operational improvements and EBITDA multiple expansion to 8-10x could result in multibagger returns.

Read the full article here. Read time: 2 min

Minera Alamos (MAI.V) is a Canadian gold producer currently generating 35,000 oz/year from the Pan Mine in Nevada at $1600-1700/oz AISC, with Copperstone in Arizona expected to produce 40-50,000 oz/year by Q4 2026 at $1259/oz AISC and Gold Rock targeted for 55,000 oz/year by 2028 at $1008/oz AISC. At $3500 gold, the combined Pan and Copperstone assets could generate $140 million in profits ($180 million at $4000 gold), implying a P/E ratio under 4x compared to peers like Equinox and Couer Mining trading at 10x+ multiples, with conservative NAV calculations exceeding $1 billion for all three assets at $3500 gold using an 8% discount rate. The stock trades cheaply due to its sub-$1 billion market cap limiting institutional interest, dilution from a C$135 million equity raise at a 25% discount to acquire the Pan Operating Complex from Equinox Gold, and Mexican permitting issues creating investor frustration. Cash flow from Pan should fund Copperstone's $36 million capex, while both mines can finance Gold Rock's $64 million development cost, with 39.9 million warrants at C$7.05 potentially generating C$280 million upon exercise, enabling minimal future dilution if gold prices hold. The investment thesis targets approximately 100% upside potential as the company re-rates closer to US-based peer valuations upon successful execution, with Mexican asset permitting representing additional upside optionality.

Read the full article here. Read time: 4 min

Hoenle AG (HNL.DE), a German niche UV technology specialist with €100m sales across Adhesives (38%), Curing (37%), and Disinfection (25%) divisions, trades at €6.90 with a €42m market cap and €85m EV, representing 0.64x P/TB (all-time low) after falling 92% since 2018 and 46% from one-year highs due to German recession impacting manufacturing. The company is a 'Hidden Champion' with global expansion (+20 subsidiaries), 65% sales outside Germany, and no single country or customer exceeding 10% of sales. Strong downside protection exists through €55-65m in owned property values (primarily €40m Gilching HQ and €15m Steinbach plant) versus €42m market cap, with €51m in real estate-backed bank liabilities and 65% net gearing. Management guides €95-105m sales and €6-9m EBITDA for FY26, while analysts forecast €12.4-13.5m EBITDA for FY26/27, implying 2.1x adjusted EV/EBITDA for operations if properties were sold via sale-and-leaseback. Additional downside protection comes from unused tax losses of €25.6m, potential sum-of-the-parts value exceeding current EV through subsidiary sales, and management's ability to remedy covenant issues through waiver agreements or additional collateral, making this a turnaround story at below-asset valuation with significant asset backing.

Read the full article here. Read time: 3 min