YB new stock pitches (Wed, May 13)

GrabAGun Digital (NYSE: PEW), an online firearms retailer founded in 2010 by CEO Marc Nemati, trades at $2.95 per share versus $3.51 per share in cash on its balance sheet, representing a 20% discount to cash alone with a price target of $8.46. The company went public via SPAC in 2025 and has been sold off despite strong fundamentals, with insiders owning 35% and the CEO holding 9%. The core GrabAGun business consistently outgrows the industry by approximately 15% annually, achieving 3.6% revenue growth in FY2025 versus a 10.6% industry decline and 11.5% growth in Q4 2025 versus a 3.7% industry decline, with the firearm industry appearing to have troughed after a 37% peak-to-trough decline in FBI background checks (a proxy for gun sales). The business is currently EBITDA breakeven and slightly FCF positive, targeting growth from $100M to $150M in revenue with $7-8M in EBITDA over the next three years at mid-single digit EBITDA margins. The major catalyst is the newly launched PEW Logistics business (launched late 2025, live for 3 months), which allows gun manufacturers to go direct-to-consumer at 70-80% gross margins versus their current 20-30% margins, with PEW handling fulfillment, regulatory compliance, and delivery for a handling fee plus revenue share. PEW Logistics has already signed two customers, Keltec (January 2026) and Derya Arms (March 2026), and if it achieves 3-4% penetration of the $9 billion US civilian firearm market ($300M gross revenue), it could generate $30M in revenue with approximately $15M in incremental EBITDA at 70% gross margins with minimal SG&A given the infrastructure is already built. Management has been disciplined on capital allocation, executing half of a $20M buyback and refusing acquisitions that don't meet strict accretive standards, with the CEO emphasizing they have 'no interest in bridging the gap at shareholders expense' regarding overvalued private market targets. Risks include the uncertainty of PEW Logistics adoption in the traditionally slow-moving gun industry and potential dealer pushback, though the company has added a new warehouse for the business and management is taking it seriously.

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Gator Capital Management is holding Ameriprise Financial (AMP), a wealth management and asset management platform with $1.7 trillion in AUM serving over 2 million clients, generating an exceptional 50%+ ROE due to its capital-light business model under CEO Jim Cracchiolo's two-decade leadership since the 2005 American Express spin-off. The stock trades at 10.4x NTM EPS versus its 8-16x historical range and at a discount to wirehouse peers like Morgan Stanley, Raymond James, LPL Financial, and Stifel Financial, despite consistent double-digit earnings growth, likely because sell-side analysts classify it as a life insurer even though insurance represents only 16% of earnings (down from 34% in 2005). The newly launched Signature Wealth platform in mid-2025 provides a unified managed account with institutional investment models, driving increased advisor productivity and wallet share while benefiting the captive Columbia Threadneedle asset manager through incremental platform fees and potential management fee flows. Ameriprise's organic growth strategy focuses on platform improvements for retention and recruiting rather than expensive compensation-led broker recruitment, with recent bank lending buildout in securities-based lending and HELOCs strengthening its competitive position against wirehouses. The company has returned over 80% of operating earnings to shareholders, repurchasing more than 60% of shares since 2005, and could be an acquisition target for Goldman Sachs or UBS seeking US wealth management scale. Key risks include AI disintermediation fears (though Morgan Stanley recovered from similar concerns while AMP remains 12% below early February highs), rate sensitivity on cash sweep income from brokerage accounts and money market funds (though AMP's smaller bank subsidiary provides better positioning than peers), secular shift from active to passive management pressuring Columbia Threadneedle, market-level exposure as substantial revenues link directly to client invested assets through wrap account advisory fees, and legacy long-term care insurance tail risk from a closed block stopped in 2002 with exposure to reinsurer Genworth counter-party risk.

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Digi Power X Inc. ($DGXX), a former crypto miner turned AI data center operator with a market capitalization of approximately $480M and $34M in trailing twelve-month revenue, has secured a 10-year, $1.1B colocation contract (expandable to $2.5B) for a 40MW purpose-built AI campus in Columbiana, Alabama, with Cerebras as the exclusive customer. Under the base case scenario, the contract would generate $110M in annual revenue, representing 3x the company's current top line, while full expansion could deliver up to $250M annually, or 7x+ current revenue. This represents an asymmetric bet on a single customer, single site, and massive fixed contract, with the market currently pricing in at best the base case, creating potential for dramatic rerating if Cerebras executes successfully, particularly following momentum from the Cerebras IPO; the company's transition from obscure former miner to legitimate AI infrastructure player hinges entirely on Cerebras' execution.

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